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The paper presents a construction of a quantitative measure of variability for parameter estimates in the data fitting problem under interval uncertainty. It shows the degree of variability and ambiguity of the estimate, and the need for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Sergey P. Shary

Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yukun Ding , Jinglan Liu , Jinjun Xiong , Yiyu Shi

In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-21 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

Kinetic equations play a major rule in modeling large systems of interacting particles. Uncertainties may be due to various reasons, like lack of knowledge on the microscopic interaction details or incomplete informations at the boundaries.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Giacomo Dimarco , Lorenzo Pareschi

Uncertainty is an important concept in physics laboratory instruction. However, little work has examined how students reason about uncertainty beyond the introductory (intro) level. In this work we aimed to compare intro and beyond-intro…

Physics Education · Physics 2023-10-26 Emily M. Stump , Mark Hughes , Gina Passante , N. G. Holmes

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to assess prediction quality of a machine learning model. In the case of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM), most methods proposed in the literature make strong assumptions on the data, ignore the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-04 Fabian Guignard , Federico Amato , Mikhail Kanevski

Uncertainty quantification of complex technical systems is often based on a computer model of the system. As all models such a computer model is always wrong in the sense that it does not describe the reality perfectly. The purpose of this…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-12-18 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

The performance of a number of different measures of nonlinearity in a time series is compared numerically. Their power to distinguish noisy chaotic data from linear stochastic surrogates is determined by Monte Carlo simulation for a number…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Thomas Schreiber , Andreas Schmitz

Due to lack of scientific understanding, some mechanisms may be missing in mathematical modeling of complex phenomena in science and engineering. These mathematical models thus contain some uncertainties such as uncertain parameters. One…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-05 Jinqiao Duan , Ting Gao , Guowei He

Quantifying coherence has received increasing attention, and considerable work has been directed towards finding coherence measures. While various coherence measures have been proposed in theory, an important issue following is how to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-05-02 Da-Jian Zhang , C. L. Liu , Xiao-Dong Yu , D. M. Tong

Modern coordinate measurement machines (CMM) are universal tools to measure geometric features of complex three-dimensional workpieces. To use them as reliable means of quality control, the suitability of the device for the specific…

Instrumentation and Detectors · Physics 2019-07-25 Daniel Heißelmann , Matthias Franke , Kerstin Rost , Klaus Wendt , Thomas Kistner , Carsten Schwehn

Quantitative characterizations and estimations of uncertainty are of fundamental importance in optimization and decision-making processes. Herein, we propose intuitive scores, which we call certainty and doubt, that can be used in both a…

In an educational setting, an estimate of the difficulty of multiple-choice questions (MCQs), a commonly used strategy to assess learning progress, constitutes very useful information for both teachers and students. Since human assessment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-21 Leonidas Zotos , Hedderik van Rijn , Malvina Nissim

Monte Carlo simulations are based on the manipulation of random numbers to evaluate probable outcomes, with applicability in a variety of different fields. By assigning probabilities, which can be determined a priori, to various events, it…

Physics Education · Physics 2022-01-03 Parasuraman Swaminathan

Increasingly high-stakes decisions are made using neural networks in order to make predictions. Specifically, meteorologists and hedge funds apply these techniques to time series data. When it comes to prediction, there are certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-14 Levente Foldesi , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

When we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a stochastic system, the simulation often contains input distributions estimated from real-world data; therefore, there is both simulation and input uncertainty in the performance…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Wei Xie , Barry L. Nelson , Russell R. Barton

Measurement uncertainty is key to assessing, stating and improving the reliability of measurements. An understanding of measurement uncertainty is the basis for confidence in measurements and is required by many communities; among others in…

Physics Education · Physics 2024-12-30 Katy Klauenberg , Peter Harris , Philipp Möhrke , Francesca Pennecchi

Choice consistency with utility maximization, as a key assumption in economics, has been extensively used to evaluate decision quality of individuals and to predict real-world outcomes across different contexts. Here we investigate the…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-22 Mingshi Chen , Tracy Xiao Liu , You Shan , Shu Wang , Songfa Zhong , Yanju Zhou

Virtual experiments (VEs), a modern tool in metrology, can be used to help perform an uncertainty evaluation for the measurand. Current guidelines in metrology do not cover the many possibilities to incorporate VEs into an uncertainty…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-18 Finn Hughes , Manuel Marschall , Gerd Wübbeler , Gertjan Kok , Marcel van Dijk , Clemens Elster

Many quantum technologies rely on high-precision dynamics, which raises the question of how these are influenced by the experimental uncertainties that are always present in real-life settings. A standard approach in the literature to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-04-27 Mogens Dalgaard , Carrie A. Weidner , Felix Motzoi