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The paper tackles the problem of deriving a topological structure among stock prices from high frequency historical values. Similar studies using low frequency data have already provided valuable insights. However, in those cases data need…
In this work, we study two fundamental graph optimization problems, minimum vertex cover (MVC) and maximum-cardinality matching (MCM), for intersection graphs of geometric objects, e.g., disks, rectangles, hypercubes, etc., in…
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide a promising framework for modeling predictive uncertainty and enhancing out-of-distribution robustness (OOD) by estimating the posterior distribution of network parameters. Stochastic Gradient Markov…
Recent empirical and theoretical analyses of several commonly used prediction procedures reveal a peculiar risk behavior in high dimensions, referred to as double/multiple descent, in which the asymptotic risk is a non-monotonic function of…
This study seeks to advance the understanding and prediction of stock market return uncertainty through the application of advanced deep learning techniques. We introduce a novel deep learning model that utilizes a Gaussian mixture…
We propose a new framework for how to use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGM). Via a sequential decomposition of the PGM we find a sequence of auxiliary distributions defined on a…
Variational Monte Carlo (VMC) is a powerful and fast-growing method for optimizing and evolving parameterized many-body wave functions, especially with modern neural-network quantum states. In practice, however, the stochastic estimators…
Financial markets are of much interest to researchers due to their dynamic and stochastic nature. With their relations to world populations, global economies and asset valuations, understanding, identifying and forecasting trends and…
Graph clustering is an important technique to understand the relationships between the vertices in a big graph. In this paper, we propose a novel random-walk-based graph clustering method. The proposed method restricts the reach of the…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…
In this paper we explore ways of numerically computing recursive dynamic monetary risk measures and utility functions. Computationally, this problem suffers from the curse of dimensionality and nested simulations are unfeasible if there are…
In this article we propose multiplication based random walk Metropolis Hastings (MH) algorithm on the real line. We call it the random dive MH (RDMH) algorithm. This algorithm, even if simple to apply, was not studied earlier in Markov…
The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty quantification in PDE models. It combines approximations at different levels of accuracy using a hierarchy of…
This article presents a novel approach, named MCMP (Monte Carlo Motion Planning), to the problem of motion planning under uncertainty, i.e., to the problem of computing a low-cost path that fulfills probabilistic collision avoidance…
In this paper, we investigate mean-variance (MV) portfolio selection problems with jumps in a regime-switching financial model. The novelty of our approach lies in allowing not only the market parameters -- such as the interest rate,…
We develop a novel observation-driven model for high-frequency prices. We account for irregularly spaced observations, simultaneous transactions, discreteness of prices, and market microstructure noise. The relation between trade durations…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are indispensable when sampling from a complex, high-dimensional distribution by a conventional method is intractable. Even though MCMC is a powerful tool, it is also hard to control and tune in…
Diversification of an investment into independently fluctuating assets reduces its risk. In reality, movement of assets are are mutually correlated and therefore knowledge of cross--correlations among asset price movements are of great…
The visibility algorithm has been recently introduced as a mapping between time series and complex networks. This procedure allows to apply methods of complex network theory for characterizing time series. In this work we present the…
There are two possible ways of interpreting the seemingly stochastic nature of financial markets: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and a set of stylized facts that drive the behavior of the markets. We show evidence for some of the…