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We consider the classical problem of sequential probability assignment under logarithmic loss while competing against an arbitrary, potentially nonparametric class of experts. We obtain tight bounds on the minimax regret via a new approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Blair Bilodeau , Dylan J. Foster , Daniel M. Roy

We analyze the problem of sequential probability assignment for binary outcomes with side information and logarithmic loss, where regret---or, redundancy---is measured with respect to a (possibly infinite) class of experts. We provide upper…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-01-30 Alexander Rakhlin , Karthik Sridharan

The problem of online prediction with sequential side information under logarithmic loss is studied, and general upper and lower bounds on the minimax regret incurred by the predictor is established. The upper bounds on the minimax regret…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Alankrita Bhatt , Young-Han Kim

We study the problem of expert advice under partial bandit feedback setting and create a sequential minimax optimal algorithm. Our algorithm works with a more general partial monitoring setting, where, in contrast to the classical bandit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-15 Kaan Gokcesu , Hakan Gokcesu

Online learning methods yield sequential regret bounds under minimal assumptions and provide in-expectation risk bounds for statistical learning. However, despite the apparent advantage of online guarantees over their statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-16 Dirk van der Hoeven , Nikita Zhivotovskiy , Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi

We study online aggregation of the predictions of experts, and first show new second-order regret bounds in the standard setting, which are obtained via a version of the Prod algorithm (and also a version of the polynomially weighted…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-11 Pierre Gaillard , Gilles Stoltz , Tim Van Erven

We study the problem of sequential prediction and online minimax regret with stochastically generated features under a general loss function. We introduce a notion of expected worst case minimax regret that generalizes and encompasses prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Changlong Wu , Mohsen Heidari , Ananth Grama , Wojciech Szpankowski

We consider the setting of online logistic regression and consider the regret with respect to the 2-ball of radius B. It is known (see [Hazan et al., 2014]) that any proper algorithm which has logarithmic regret in the number of samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-04 Rémi Jézéquel , Pierre Gaillard , Alessandro Rudi

This work introduces the first small-loss and gradual-variation regret bounds for online portfolio selection, marking the first instances of data-dependent bounds for online convex optimization with non-Lipschitz, non-smooth losses. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Chung-En Tsai , Ying-Ting Lin , Yen-Huan Li

We study the problem of sequential probability assignment under logarithmic loss, both with and without side information. Our objective is to analyze the minimax regret -- a notion extensively studied in the literature -- in terms of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Zeyu Jia , Yury Polyanskiy , Alexander Rakhlin

We investigate the problem of cumulative regret minimization for individual sequence prediction with respect to the best expert in a finite family of size K under limited access to information. We assume that in each round, the learner can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-06 El Mehdi Saad , G. Blanchard

We study how to make decisions that minimize Bayesian regret in offline linear bandits. Prior work suggests that one must take actions with maximum lower confidence bound (LCB) on their reward. We argue that the reliance on LCB is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Marek Petrik , Guy Tennenholtz , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh

We address online combinatorial optimization when the player has a prior over the adversary's sequence of losses. In this framework, Russo and Van Roy proposed an information-theoretic analysis of Thompson Sampling based on the information…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-05 Sébastien Bubeck , Mark Sellke

Stochastic and adversarial data are two widely studied settings in online learning. But many optimization tasks are neither i.i.d. nor fully adversarial, which makes it of fundamental interest to get a better theoretical understanding of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-09 Sarah Sachs , Hédi Hadiji , Tim van Erven , Cristóbal Guzmán

For each of $T$ time steps, $m$ experts report probability distributions over $n$ outcomes; we wish to learn to aggregate these forecasts in a way that attains a no-regret guarantee. We focus on the fundamental and practical aggregation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Eric Neyman , Tim Roughgarden

We revisit online binary classification by shifting the focus from competing with the best-in-class binary loss to competing against relaxed benchmarks that capture smoothed notions of optimality. Instead of measuring regret relative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-16 Omar Montasser , Abhishek Shetty , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

We study algorithms for online linear optimization in Hilbert spaces, focusing on the case where the player is unconstrained. We develop a novel characterization of a large class of minimax algorithms, recovering, and even improving,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-05-22 H. Brendan McMahan , Francesco Orabona

We prove a new minimax theorem connecting the worst-case Bayesian regret and minimax regret under partial monitoring with no assumptions on the space of signals or decisions of the adversary. We then generalise the information-theoretic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-30 Tor Lattimore , Csaba Szepesvari

A central problem in the theory of empirical Bayes is to control the regret (excess risk) of a learned Bayes rule by the Hellinger distance between the estimated and true marginal densities. In the normal means model, the classical result…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Jiafeng Chen , Yihong Wu

We study a variant of decision-theoretic online learning in which the set of experts that are available to Learner can shrink over time. This is a restricted version of the well-studied sleeping experts problem, itself a generalization of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Hamid Shayestehmanesh , Sajjad Azami , Nishant A. Mehta
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