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In contrast to problems of interference in (exogenous) treatments, models of interference in unit-specific (endogenous) outcomes do not usually produce a reduced-form representation where outcomes depend on other units' treatment status…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Konrad Menzel

Estimating causal interactions in complex dynamical systems is an important problem encountered in many fields of current science. While a theoretical solution for detecting the causal interactions has been previously formulated in the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-01-20 Jakub Kořenek , Jaroslav Hlinka

There are several existing algorithms that under appropriate assumptions can reliably identify a subset of the underlying causal relationships from observational data. This paper introduces the first computationally feasible score-based…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Subramani Mani , Peter L. Spirtes , Gregory F. Cooper

We investigate causal inference in the asymptotic regime as the number of variables approaches infinity using an information-theoretic framework. We define structural entropy of a causal model in terms of its description complexity measured…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-21 Sridhar Mahadevan

Causal discovery combines data with knowledge provided by experts to learn the DAG representing the causal relationships between a given set of variables. When data are scarce, bagging is used to measure our confidence in an average DAG…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alessio Zanga , Marco Scutari , Fabio Stella

A standard assumption for causal inference from observational data is that one has measured a sufficiently rich set of covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values. Skepticism…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-24 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen , Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Xu Shi , Wang Miao

We propose a notion of causal influence that describes the `intrinsic' part of the contribution of a node on a target node in a DAG. By recursively writing each node as a function of the upstream noise terms, we separate the intrinsic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Dominik Janzing , Patrick Blöbaum , Atalanti A. Mastakouri , Philipp M. Faller , Lenon Minorics , Kailash Budhathoki

The predominant method for evaluating the quality of causal models is to measure the graphical accuracy of the learned model structure. We present an alternative method for evaluating causal models that directly measures the accuracy of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-17 Dan Garant , David Jensen

The past two decades have seen a growing interest in combining causal information, commonly represented using causal graphs, with machine learning models. Probability trees provide a simple yet powerful alternative representation of causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-18 Tue Herlau

Interventional effects have been proposed as a solution to the unidentifiability of natural (in)direct effects under mediator-outcome confounders affected by the exposure. Such confounders are an intrinsic characteristic of studies with…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-30 Iván Díaz , Nicholas Williams , Kara E. Rudolph

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Yashas Annadani , Nick Pawlowski , Joel Jennings , Stefan Bauer , Cheng Zhang , Wenbo Gong

Causal models are crucial for understanding complex systems and identifying causal relationships among variables. Even though causal models are extremely popular, conditional probability calculation of formulas involving interventions pose…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Sainyam Galhotra , Joseph Y. Halpern

Learning directed acyclic graphs using both observational and interventional data is now a fundamentally important problem due to recent technological developments in genomics that generate such single-cell gene expression data at a very…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-05 Yuhao Wang , Liam Solus , Karren Dai Yang , Caroline Uhler

The standard approach to answering an identifiable causal-effect query (e.g., $P(Y|do(X)$) when given a causal diagram and observational data is to first generate an estimand, or probabilistic expression over the observable variables, which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Anna Raichev , Alexander Ihler , Jin Tian , Rina Dechter

Randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for estimating causal effects. Nevertheless, in studies that are aimed at examining adverse effects of interventions, such trials are often impractical because of ethical and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-20 Anthony D. Scotina , Andrew R. Zullo , Robert J. Smith , Roee Gutman

We consider the problem of efficiently inferring interventional distributions in a causal Bayesian network from a finite number of observations. Let $\mathcal{P}$ be a causal model on a set $\mathbf{V}$ of observable variables on a given…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-07-28 Arnab Bhattacharyya , Sutanu Gayen , Saravanan Kandasamy , Vedant Raval , N. V. Vinodchandran

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-30 Manqing Liu , David R. Bellamy , Andrew L. Beam

Graph-based causal discovery methods aim to capture conditional independencies consistent with the observed data and differentiate causal relationships from indirect or induced ones. Successful construction of graphical models of data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-08 Boris Hayete , Fred Gruber , Anna Decker , Raymond Yan

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Arman Oganisian

Many real-world decision-making tasks require learning causal relationships between a set of variables. Traditional causal discovery methods, however, require that all variables are observed, which is often not feasible in practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Raj Agrawal , Chandler Squires , Neha Prasad , Caroline Uhler
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