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The increasing importance of solar power for electricity generation leads to an increasing demand for probabilistic forecasting of local and aggregated PV yields. In this paper we use an indirect modeling approach for hourly medium to long…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-24 Alfred Müller , Matthias Reuber

Capturing complex dependence structures between outcome variables (e.g., study endpoints) is of high relevance in contemporary biomedical data problems and medical research. Distributional copula regression provides a flexible tool to model…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-28 Nicolai Hans , Nadja Klein , Florian Faschingbauer , Michael Schneider , Andreas Mayr

The varying-coefficient model is a strong tool for the modelling of interactions in generalized regression. It is easy to apply if both the variables that are modified as well as the effect modifiers are known. However, in general one has a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-25 Moritz Berger , Gerhard Tutz , Matthias Schmid

Linear quantile regression models aim at providing a detailed and robust picture of the (conditional) response distribution as function of a set of observed covariates. Longitudinal data represent an interesting field of application of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-07-30 Maria Francesca Marino , Nikos Tzavidis , Marco Alfo'

This research is motivated by discovering and underpinning genetic causes for the progression of a bilateral eye disease, Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD), of which the primary outcomes, progression times to late-AMD, are bivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-21 Tao Sun , Ying Ding

The multinomial probit model is a typical statistical model for multiple-choice data applied in many research areas. When we are interested in some quantiles of relative utilities for understanding the distribution of these utilities, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Masaaki Okabe , Koki Matsuoka , Jun Tsuchida , Hiroshi Yadohisa

The advent of high-throughput sequencing technologies has lead to vast comparative genome sequences. The construction of gene-gene interaction networks or dependence graphs on the genome scale is vital for understanding the regulation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-06 Xinyao Fan , Harry Joe , Yongjin Park

Distributional regression aims to estimate the full conditional distribution of a target variable, given covariates. Popular methods include linear and tree-ensemble based quantile regression. We propose a neural network-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Xinwei Shen , Nicolai Meinshausen

We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-08 Pavel Krupskii , Raphael Huser , Marc G. Genton

We propose a new variational Bayes estimator for high-dimensional copulas with discrete, or a combination of discrete and continuous, margins. The method is based on a variational approximation to a tractable augmented posterior, and is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-23 Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Michael Stanley Smith

Copulas have now become ubiquitous statistical tools for describing, analysing and modelling dependence between random variables. Sklar's theorem, "the fundamental theorem of copulas", makes a clear distinction between the continuous case…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-12 Gery Geenens

We exploit Gaussian copulas to specify a class of multivariate circular distributions and obtain parametric models for the analysis of correlated circular data. This approach provides a straightforward extension of traditional multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-07 Francesco Lagona , Marco Mingione

Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-09-11 Rémy Chicheportiche , Anirban Chakraborti

Copula models have been widely used to model the dependence between continuous random variables, but modeling count data via copulas has recently become popular in the statistics literature. Spearman's rho is an appropriate and effective…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-21 Hadi Safari-Katesari , S. Yaser Samadi , Samira Zaroudi

We extend existing models in the financial literature by introducing a cluster-derived canonical vine (CDCV) copula model for capturing high dimensional dependence between financial time series. This model utilises a simplified…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-11-19 David Walsh-Jones , Daniel Jones , Christoph Reisinger

This paper develops a novel spatial quantile function-on-scalar regression model, which studies the conditional spatial distribution of a high-dimensional functional response given scalar predictors. With the strength of both quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-22 Zhengwu Zhang , Xiao Wang , Linglong Kong , Hongtu Zhu

We describe here a new method to estimate copula measure. From N observations of two variables X and Y, we draw a huge number m of subsamples (size n<N), and we compute the joint ranks in these subsamples. Then, for each bivariate rank…

Methodology · Statistics 2007-09-26 Jérôme Collet

In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean-$CVaR$ portfolio we compute…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-13 Mikhail Semenov , Daulet Smagulov

Survival trees are popular alternatives to Cox or Aalen regression models that offer both modelling flexibility and graphical interpretability. This paper introduces a new algorithm for survival trees that relaxes the assumption of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Pauline Baur , Markus Pauly , Takeshi Emura

We propose a bivariate quantile regression method for the bivariate varying coefficient model through a directional approach. The varying coefficients are approximated by the B-spline basis and an $L_{2}$ type penalty is imposed to achieve…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-10 Linglong Kong , Haoxu Shu , Giseon Heo , Qianchuan Chad He