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This paper studies experimental designs for estimation and inference on policies with spillover effects. Units are organized into a finite number of large clusters and interact in unknown ways within each cluster. First, we introduce a…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-06 Davide Viviano , Jess Rudder

Time series data is a collection of chronological observations which is generated by several domains such as medical and financial fields. Over the years, different tasks such as classification, forecasting, and clustering have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Raha Moraffah , Paras Sheth , Mansooreh Karami , Anchit Bhattacharya , Qianru Wang , Anique Tahir , Adrienne Raglin , Huan Liu

We reformulate Pearl's three rules of do-calculus in the language of completely positive (CP) trace-preserving maps, thereby extending them to quantum systems with entanglement. We prove that Rule~2 fails whenever the underlying process…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-08-08 Jordi Vallverdu

We consider linear structural equation models with explicitly modelled latent variables. In such models, observed and latent variables solve linear equations including stochastic noise terms. The goal of our work is to identify the direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Tom Hochsprung , Nils Sturma , Jakob Runge , Mathias Drton , Andreas Gerhardus

Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He

Bipartite experiments are a recent object of study in causal inference, whereby treatment is applied to one set of units and outcomes of interest are measured on a different set of units. These experiments are particularly useful in…

Learning causal structure from sampled data is a fundamental problem with applications in various fields, including healthcare, machine learning and artificial intelligence. Traditional methods predominantly rely on observational data, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Qiu Chengbo , Yang Kai

We provide a conceptual map to navigate causal analysis problems. Focusing on the case of discrete random variables, we consider the case of causal effect estimation from observational data. The presented approaches apply also to continuous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-06 Finnian Lattimore , Cheng Soon Ong

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

Identifying variables responsible for changes to a biological system enables applications in drug target discovery and cell engineering. Given a pair of observational and interventional datasets, the goal is to isolate the subset of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Menghua Wu , Umesh Padia , Sean H. Murphy , Regina Barzilay , Tommi Jaakkola

This article presents a novel method for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models suited for analyzing diverse types of outcomes, including discrete, continuous, and mixed data. Causal discovery often faces challenges…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-26 Minjie Wang , Xiaotong Shen , Wei Pan

This paper focuses on developing Pareto-optimal estimation and policy learning to identify the most effective treatment that maximizes the total reward from both short-term and long-term effects, which might conflict with each other. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Yingrong Wang , Anpeng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Weiming Liu , Qiaowei Miao , Ruoxuan Xiong , Fei Wu , Kun Kuang

Causal models bring many benefits to decision-making systems (or agents) by making them interpretable, sample-efficient, and robust to changes in the input distribution. However, spurious correlations can lead to wrong causal models and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Sergei Volodin , Nevan Wichers , Jeremy Nixon

Combating an epidemic entails finding a plan that describes when and how to apply different interventions, such as mask-wearing mandates, vaccinations, school or workplace closures. An optimal plan will curb an epidemic with minimal loss of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Anh Mai , Nikunj Gupta , Azza Abouzied , Dennis Shasha

Identifying and controlling bias is a key problem in empirical sciences. Causal diagram theory provides graphical criteria for deciding whether and how causal effects can be identified from observed (nonexperimental) data by covariate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Johannes Textor , Maciej Liskiewicz

Quantifying cause and effect relationships is an important problem in many domains. The gold standard solution is to conduct a randomised controlled trial. However, in many situations such trials cannot be performed. In the absence of such…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-19 Jakob Zeitler , Athanasios Vlontzos , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the most effective approach to causal discovery, but in many circumstances it is impossible to conduct RCTs. Therefore observational studies based on passively observed data are widely accepted as an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-11 Jiuyong Li , Thuc Duy Le , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Zhou Jin , Bingyu Sun , Saisai Ma

Many methods have been proposed to estimate treatment effects with observational data. Often, the choice of the method considers the application's characteristics, such as type of treatment and outcome, confounding effect, and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-20 Raquel Aoki , Martin Ester

The instrumental-variables (IV) setting is standard for partial identification of causal effects when unobserved confounding makes point identification impossible. Existing approaches face methodological bottlenecks: closed-form bound…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Vahid Balazadeh , Hamidreza Kamkari , Medha Barath , Ricardo Silva , Rahul G. Krishnan

We consider identifying a conditional causal effect when a graph is known up to a maximally oriented partially directed acyclic graph (MPDAG). An MPDAG represents an equivalence class of graphs that is restricted by background knowledge and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Sara LaPlante , Emilija Perković
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