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We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

Adaptive importance samplers are adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate expectations with respect to some target distribution which \textit{adapt} themselves to obtain better estimators over a sequence of iterations. Although it is…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-08 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Joaquín Míguez

This study presents an importance sampling formulation based on adaptively relaxing parameters from the indicator function and/or the probability density function. The formulation embodies the prevalent mathematical concept of relaxing a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-04-11 Jianhua Xian , Ziqi Wang

We propose an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which sampled data are used to update the proposal distribution. We use the samples found by the algorithm at a particular step to form the information-theoretically optimal mean-field…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 David H. Wolpert , Chiu Fan Lee

Machine learning optimization often depends on stochastic gradient descent, where the precision of gradient estimation is vital for model performance. Gradients are calculated from mini-batches formed by uniformly selecting data samples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-29 Corentin Salaün , Xingchang Huang , Iliyan Georgiev , Niloy J. Mitra , Gurprit Singh

This paper deals with the Monte-Carlo methods for evaluating expectations of functionals of solutions to McKean-Vlasov Stochastic Differential Equations (MV-SDE) with drifts of super-linear growth. We assume that the MV-SDE is approximated…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-15 Goncalo dos Reis , Greig Smith , Peter Tankov

This paper adopts a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model where the mixing distribution belongs to the wide class of normalized homogeneous completely random measures. We propose a truncation method for the mixing distribution by discarding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-17 Raffaele Argiento , Ilaria Bianchini , Alessandra Guglielmi

A central challenge to applying many off-policy reinforcement learning algorithms to real world problems is the variance introduced by importance sampling. In off-policy learning, the agent learns about a different policy than the one being…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Eric Graves , Sina Ghiassian

In this paper, we propose an adaptive algorithm that iteratively updates both the weights and component parameters of a mixture importance sampling density so as to optimise the importance sampling performances, as measured by an entropy…

Computation · Statistics 2009-08-18 Olivier Cappé , Randal Douc , Arnaud Guillin , Jean-Michel Marin , Christian P. Robert

Many Monte Carlo light transport simulations use multiple importance sampling (MIS) to weight between different path sampling strategies. We propose to use the path throughput to compute the MIS weights instead of the commonly used…

Graphics · Computer Science 2018-09-07 Johannes Jendersie

Diffusion models provide a powerful way to incorporate complex prior information for solving inverse problems. However, existing methods struggle to correctly incorporate guidance from conflicting signals in the prior and measurement, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Shaorong Zhang , Rob Brekelmans , Yunshu Wu , Greg Ver Steeg

The adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm of Haario, Saksman and Tamminen [Bernoulli 7 (2001) 223-242] uses the estimated covariance of the target distribution in the proposal distribution. This paper introduces a new robust adaptive…

Computation · Statistics 2011-05-30 Matti Vihola

We describe a simple Importance Sampling strategy for Monte Carlo simulations based on a least squares optimization procedure. With several numerical examples, we show that such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) provides efficiency…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-10 Luca Capriotti

Thompson sampling (TS) is a class of algorithms for sequential decision-making, which requires maintaining a posterior distribution over a model. However, calculating exact posterior distributions is intractable for all but the simplest…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-21 Ruiyi Zhang , Zheng Wen , Changyou Chen , Lawrence Carin

To efficiently evaluate system reliability based on Monte Carlo simulation, importance sampling is used widely. The optimal importance sampling density was derived in 1950s for the deterministic simulation model, which maps an input to an…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-04 Quoc Dung Cao , Youngjun Choe

The inefficiency of using an unbiased estimator in a Monte Carlo procedure can be quantified using an inefficiency constant, equal to the product of the variance of the estimator and its mean computational cost. We develop methods for…

Computation · Statistics 2016-01-08 Tomasz Badowski

We introduce a novel approach to boost the efficiency of the importance nested sampling (INS) technique for Bayesian posterior and evidence estimation using deep learning. Unlike rejection-based sampling methods such as vanilla nested…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-06-30 Johannes U. Lange

Importance sampling is one of the most widely used variance reduction strategies in Monte Carlo rendering. In this paper, we propose a novel importance sampling technique that uses a neural network to learn how to sample from a desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Quan Zheng , Matthias Zwicker

Recent years have seen a rise in the application of machine learning techniques to aid the simulation of hard-to-sample systems that cannot be studied using traditional methods. Despite the introduction of many different architectures and…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-10-09 Luca Maria Del Bono , Federico Ricci-Tersenghi , Francesco Zamponi

Rejection Sampling is a fundamental Monte-Carlo method. It is used to sample from distributions admitting a probability density function which can be evaluated exactly at any given point, albeit at a high computational cost. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-23 Juliette Achdou , Joseph C. Lam , Alexandra Carpentier , Gilles Blanchard