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In the independent component model, the multivariate data is assumed to be a mixture of mutually independent latent components, and in independent component analysis (ICA) the aim is to estimate these latent components. In this paper we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Jari Miettinen , Markus Matilainen , Klaus Nordhausen , Sara Taskinen

This paper studies the unsupervised change point detection problem in time series of networks using the Separable Temporal Exponential-family Random Graph Model (STERGM). Inherently, dynamic network patterns are complex due to dyadic and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Yik Lun Kei , Hangjian Li , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

We consider the consistency properties of a regularised estimator for the simultaneous identification of both changepoints and graphical dependency structure in multivariate time-series. Traditionally, estimation of Gaussian Graphical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-18 Alex J. Gibberd , Sandipan Roy

In this article we consider Bayesian inference for partially observed Andersson-Madigan-Perlman (AMP) Gaussian chain graph (CG) models. Such models are of particular interest in applications such as biological networks and financial time…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-13 Deng Lu , Maria De Iorio , Ajay Jasra , Gary L. Rosner

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) of features (variables) plays a vital role in revealing the latent data generation process and providing causal insights in various applications. Although there have been many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Shaohua Fan , Shuyang Zhang , Xiao Wang , Chuan Shi

The pattern of zero entries in the inverse covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution corresponds to conditional independence restrictions between variables. Covariance selection aims at estimating those structural zeros from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Nicolai Meinshausen , Peter Bühlmann

We consider the problem of estimating differences in two multi-attribute Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) which are known to have similar structure, using a penalized D-trace loss function with non-convex penalties. The GGM structure is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-16 Jitendra K Tugnait

Time series forecasting lies at the core of important real-world applications in many fields of science and engineering. The abundance of large time series datasets that consist of complex patterns and long-term dependencies has led to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Nancy Xu , Chrysoula Kosma , Michalis Vazirgiannis

We study the problem of learning the causal relationships between a set of observed variables in the presence of latents, while minimizing the cost of interventions on the observed variables. We assume access to an undirected graph $G$ on…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Raghavendra Addanki , Andrew McGregor , Cameron Musco

We study a recent class of models which uses graph neural networks (GNNs) to improve forecasting in multivariate time series. The core assumption behind these models is that there is a latent graph between the time series (nodes) that…

We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-09 Sacha Epskamp , Lourens J. Waldorp , René Mõttus , Denny Borsboom

Log-linear models are a classical tool for the analysis of contingency tables. In particular, the subclass of graphical log-linear models provides a general framework for modelling conditional independences. However, with the exception of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-04 Mathias Drton , Thomas S. Richardson

Continuum mechanics simulators, numerically solving one or more partial differential equations, are essential tools in many areas of science and engineering, but their performance often limits application in practice. Recent modern machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Mario Lino , Chris Cantwell , Anil A. Bharath , Stathi Fotiadis

Real causal processes may contain feedback loops and change over time. In this paper, we model cycles and non-stationary distributions using a mixture of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We then study the conditional independence (CI)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Eric V. Strobl

Causal structure learning has been a challenging task in the past decades and several mainstream approaches such as constraint- and score-based methods have been studied with theoretical guarantees. Recently, a new approach has transformed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-19 Ignavier Ng , Shengyu Zhu , Zhitang Chen , Zhuangyan Fang

This work addresses the problem of graph learning from data following a Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) with a time-varying mean. Graphical Lasso (GL), the standard method for estimating sparse precision matrices, assumes that the observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Samuel Rey , Ernesto Curbelo , Luca Martino , Fernando Llorente , Antonio G. Marques

We study the problem of learning a directed acyclic graph from data generated according to an additive, non-linear structural equation model with Gaussian noise. We express each non-linear function through a basis expansion, and derive a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Xiaozhu Zhang , Nir Keret , Ali Shojaie , Armeen Taeb

We study the problem of experimental design for accurately identifying the causal graph structure of a simple structural causal model (SCM), where the underlying graph may include both cycles and bidirected edges induced by latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-03 Haijie Xu , Chen Zhang

Modeling complex spatiotemporal dependencies in correlated traffic series is essential for traffic prediction. While recent works have shown improved prediction performance by using neural networks to extract spatiotemporal correlations,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Junpeng Lin , Ziyue Li , Zhishuai Li , Lei Bai , Rui Zhao , Chen Zhang

Many real-world IoT systems, which include a variety of internet-connected sensory devices, produce substantial amounts of multivariate time series data. Meanwhile, vital IoT infrastructures like smart power grids and water distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Zekai Chen , Dingshuo Chen , Xiao Zhang , Zixuan Yuan , Xiuzhen Cheng