Related papers: Bayesian Information Criterion for Event-based Mul…

In this paper, we study the Bayesian multi-task variable selection problem, where the goal is to select activated variables for multiple related data sets simultaneously. Our proposed method generalizes the spike-and-slab prior to multiple…

A threshold autoregressive (TAR) model is a powerful tool for analyzing nonlinear multivariate time series, which includes special cases like self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models and vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In…

In multivariate extreme value statistics, the first step in understanding the dependence structure of extremes is identifying the directions in which they occur. The novelty of this paper is the analysis of high-dimensional extreme value…

The first investigation is made of designs for screening experiments where the response variable is approximated by a generalised linear model. A Bayesian information capacity criterion is defined for the selection of designs that are…

Several methods exist to infer causal networks from massive volumes of observational data. However, almost all existing methods require a considerable length of time series data to capture cause and effect relationships. In contrast,…

This paper proposes Bayesian Adaptive Trials (BAT) as both an efficient method to conduct trials and a unifying framework for evaluation social policy interventions, addressing limitations inherent in traditional methods such as Randomized…

The class of chain event graph models is a generalisation of the class of discrete Bayesian networks, retaining most of the structural advantages of the Bayesian network for model interrogation, propagation and learning, while more…

Bayesian experimental design (BED) provides a principled framework for optimizing data collection by choosing experiments that are maximally informative about unknown parameters. However, existing methods cannot deal with the joint…

Real-life statistical samples are often plagued by selection bias, which complicates drawing conclusions about the general population. When learning causal relationships between the variables is of interest, the sample may be assumed to be…

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

We consider approximate Bayesian model choice for model selection problems that involve models whose Fisher-information matrices may fail to be invertible along other competing submodels. Such singular models do not obey the regularity…

We consider the use of Bayesian information criteria for selection of the graph underlying an Ising model. In an Ising model, the full conditional distributions of each variable form logistic regression models, and variable selection…

In a nonautonomous nonlinear dynamical system, generic critical transitions (tipping points) are not limited to slow passage through fold bifurcations. They can also correspond to slow passage through other generic bifurcations, such as…

Bayesian model averaging, model selection and its approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates og convergence than other methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…

Mass Casualty Incidents can overwhelm emergency medical systems and resulting delays or errors in the assessment of casualties can lead to preventable deaths. We present a decision support framework that fuses outputs from multiple computer…

In this work we present a method for the statistical analysis of continually monitored data arising in a recurrent diseases problem. The model enables individual level inference in the presence of time transience and population…

Item Response Theory (IRT) is a ubiquitous model for understanding humans based on their responses to questions, used in fields as diverse as education, medicine and psychology. Large modern datasets offer opportunities to capture more…

This paper deals with inference and prediction for multiple correlated time series, where one has also the choice of using a candidate pool of contemporaneous predictors for each target series. Starting with a structural model for the…

The design of reliable indicators to anticipate critical transitions in complex systems is an im portant task in order to detect a coming sudden regime shift and to take action in order to either prevent it or mitigate its consequences. We…