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Some applications of deep learning require not only to provide accurate results but also to quantify the amount of confidence in their prediction. The management of an electric power grid is one of these cases: to avoid risky scenarios,…

The scheduling and operation of power system becomes prominently complex and uncertain, especially with the penetration of distributed power. Load forecasting matters to the effective operation of power system. This paper proposes a novel…

Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructure such as Smart Grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting which, due to its nonlinear nature, remains a challenging task. Recently, deep learning has emerged in…

The recent advent of smart meters has led to large micro-level datasets. For the first time, the electricity consumption at individual sites is available on a near real-time basis. Efficient management of energy resources, electric…

This paper addresses the mid-term electricity load forecasting problem. Solving this problem is necessary for power system operation and planning as well as for negotiating forward contracts in deregulated energy markets. We show that our…

Normalizing Flows (NFs) are able to model complicated distributions p(y) with strong inter-dimensional correlations and high multimodality by transforming a simple base density p(z) through an invertible neural network under the change of…

Predicting the distribution of future states in a stochastic system, known as belief propagation, is fundamental to reasoning under uncertainty. However, nonlinear dynamics often make analytical belief propagation intractable, requiring…

State-of-the-art forecasting methods using Recurrent Neural Net- works (RNN) based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) cells have shown exceptional performance targeting short-horizon forecasts, e.g given a set of predictor features, forecast…

Accurate short-term state forecasting is essential for efficient and stable operation of modern power systems, especially in the context of increasing variability introduced by renewable and distributed energy resources. As these systems…

Water demand is a highly important variable for operational control and decision making. Hence, the development of accurate forecasts is a valuable field of research to further improve the efficiency of water utilities. Focusing on…

Given the historically static nature of low-voltage networks, distribution network companies do not possess tools for dealing with an increasingly variable demand due to the high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER). Within…

Applying neural networks as controllers in dynamical systems has shown great promises. However, it is critical yet challenging to verify the safety of such control systems with neural-network controllers in the loop. Previous methods for…

We investigate predictive density estimation under the $L^2$ Wasserstein loss for location families and location-scale families. We show that plug-in densities form a complete class and that the Bayesian predictive density is given by the…

We propose a data-driven method to solve a stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions. The objective is to determine power schedules for controllable devices in a power…

Existing machine learning methods for causal inference usually estimate quantities expressed via the mean of potential outcomes (e.g., average treatment effect). However, such quantities do not capture the full information about the…

The key component in forecasting demand and consumption of resources in a supply network is an accurate prediction of real-valued time series. Indeed, both service interruptions and resource waste can be reduced with the implementation of…

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the crucial issues in intelligent transportation system, which is an important part of smart cities. Accurate predictions can enable both the drivers and the passengers to make better decisions…

Normalizing Flows are a promising new class of algorithms for unsupervised learning based on maximum likelihood optimization with change of variables. They offer to learn a factorized component representation for complex nonlinear data and,…

Recent work has demonstrated that water supply pumps in the drinking water distribution network can be leveraged to provide flexibility to the power network, but existing approaches are computationally demanding and/or overly conservative.…

Even though probabilistic treatments of neural networks have a long history, they have not found widespread use in practice. Sampling approaches are often too slow already for simple networks. The size of the inputs and the depth of typical…