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Identification of treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is a persistent problem in the social, biological, and medical sciences. The problem of unmeasured confounding in settings with multiple treatments is most common…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Wang Miao , Wenjie Hu , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Xiaohua Zhou

Unmeasured confounding presents a significant challenge in causal inference from observational studies. Classical approaches often rely on collecting proxy variables, such as instrumental variables. However, in applications where the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-16 Xiaochuan Shi , Dehan Kong , Linbo Wang

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental obstacle to establishing valid causal conclusions from observational data. Two complementary types of approaches have been developed to address this obstacle: obtaining identification using fortuitous…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Ilya Shpitser , Zach Wood-Doughty , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Distinguishing causal connections from correlations is important in many scenarios. However, the presence of unobserved variables, such as the latent confounder, can introduce bias in conditional independence testing commonly employed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Mingzhou Liu , Xinwei Sun , Yu Qiao , Yizhou Wang

Suppose that we are interested in the average causal effect of a binary treatment on an outcome when this relationship is confounded by a binary confounder. Suppose that the confounder is unobserved but a nondifferential proxy of it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-25 Jose M. Peña

We propose a method for estimating long-term treatment effects with many short-term proxy outcomes: a central challenge when experimenting on digital platforms. We formalize this challenge as a latent variable problem where observed proxies…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Apoorva Lal , Guido Imbens , Peter Hull

The principal stratification has become a popular tool to address a broad class of causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with non-compliance and truncation-by-death problems. The causal effects within principal strata which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Wang Miao , Yangbo He

Causal inference from observational data requires assumptions. These assumptions range from measuring confounders to identifying instruments. Traditionally, causal inference assumptions have focused on estimation of effects for a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Rajesh Ranganath , Adler Perotte

Methods that rely on proxies, without imposing strong parametric structure, are increasingly used to deal with unobserved variables in causal inference. One influential line of this work reconstructs latent distributions used to identify…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Helen Guo , Ilya Shpitser , Elizabeth L. Ogburn

We study identification and estimation of causal effects in settings with panel data. Traditionally researchers follow model-based identification strategies relying on assumptions governing the relation between the potential outcomes and…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-18 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Guido W. Imbens

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Christos Louizos , Uri Shalit , Joris Mooij , David Sontag , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

We propose a method for inferring the existence of a latent common cause ('confounder') of two observed random variables. The method assumes that the two effects of the confounder are (possibly nonlinear) functions of the confounder plus…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-05-14 Dominik Janzing , Jonas Peters , Joris Mooij , Bernhard Schoelkopf

Estimating the effect of intervention from observational data while accounting for confounding variables is a key task in causal inference. Oftentimes, the confounders are unobserved, but we have access to large amounts of additional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-13 Shachi Deshpande , Kaiwen Wang , Dhruv Sreenivas , Zheng Li , Volodymyr Kuleshov

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects under unobserved confounding by combining an experimental sample, where the long-term outcome is missing, with an observational sample, where the treatment assignment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-27 Ting-Chih Hung , Yu-Chang Chen

We study the identification and estimation of long-term treatment effects when both experimental and observational data are available. Since the long-term outcome is observed only after a long delay, it is not measured in the experimental…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-04 Guido Imbens , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Yuhao Wang

Suppose that we are interested in the average causal effect of a binary treatment on an outcome when this relationship is confounded by a binary confounder. Suppose that the confounder is unobserved but a non-differential binary proxy of it…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-29 Jose M. Peña

Recent work has focused on the potential and pitfalls of causal identification in observational studies with multiple simultaneous treatments. Building on previous work, we show that even if the conditional distribution of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Jiajing Zheng , Alexander D'Amour , Alexander Franks

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding is challenging. Although auxiliary variables, such as instrumental variables, are commonly used to identify causal effects, they are often unavailable in practice due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Yue Zhang , Feng Xie , Yangbo He

Granger causality analysis, as one of the most popular time series causality methods, has been widely used in the economics, neuroscience. However, unobserved confounders is a fundamental problem in the observational studies, which is still…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-10 Yuan Meng

Due to the unobservability of confoundings, there has been widespread concern about how to compute causality quantitatively. To address this challenge, proxy-based negative control approaches have been commonly adopted, where auxiliary…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-09 Zhiheng Zhang