Related papers: Probabilistic Models for Manufacturing Lead Times

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Ensuring vertical separation is a key means of maintaining safe separation between aircraft in congested airspace. Aircraft trajectories are modelled in the presence of significant epistemic uncertainty, leading to discrepancies between…

Gaussian processes are a versatile probabilistic machine learning model whose effectiveness often depends on good hyperparameters, which are typically learned by maximising the marginal likelihood. In this work, we consider iterative…

In the study of natural and artificial complex systems, responses that are not completely determined by the considered decision variables are commonly modelled probabilistically, resulting in response distributions varying across decision…

This thesis describes work on two applications of probabilistic programming: the learning of probabilistic program code given specifications, in particular program code of one-dimensional samplers; and the facilitation of sequential Monte…

The Gaussian process (GP) model, which has been extensively applied as priors of functions, has demonstrated excellent performance. The specification of a large number of parameters affects the computational efficiency and the feasibility…

We present a statistical perspective on boosting. Special emphasis is given to estimating potentially complex parametric or nonparametric models, including generalized linear and additive models as well as regression models for survival…

Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having…

PV power forecasting models are predominantly based on machine learning algorithms which do not provide any insight into or explanation about their predictions (black boxes). Therefore, their direct implementation in environments where…

The natural gradient method has been used effectively in conjugate Gaussian process models, but the non-conjugate case has been largely unexplored. We examine how natural gradients can be used in non-conjugate stochastic settings, together…

Symbolic regression automates the process of learning closed-form mathematical models from data. Standard approaches to symbolic regression, as well as newer deep learning approaches, rely on heuristic model selection criteria, heuristic…

Improving existing widely-adopted prediction models is often a more efficient and robust way towards progress than training new models from scratch. Existing models may (a) incorporate complex mechanistic knowledge, (b) leverage proprietary…

Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a…

Boosting techniques from the field of statistical learning have grown to be a popular tool for estimating and selecting predictor effects in various regression models and can roughly be separated in two general approaches, namely gradient…

Used car pricing is a critical aspect of the automotive industry, influenced by many economic factors and market dynamics. With the recent surge in online marketplaces and increased demand for used cars, accurate pricing would benefit both…

Score-based generative models can effectively learn the distribution of data by estimating the gradient of the distribution. Due to the multi-step denoising characteristic, researchers have recently considered combining score-based…

Model selection in Gaussian processes scales prohibitively with the size of the training dataset, both in time and memory. While many approximations exist, all incur inevitable approximation error. Recent work accounts for this error in the…

We apply Gaussian process (GP) regression, which provides a powerful non-parametric probabilistic method of relating inputs to outputs, to survival data consisting of time-to-event and covariate measurements. In this context, the covariates…

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…