Related papers: Prediction uncertainty validation for computationa…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational chemistry (CC) is still in its infancy. Very few CC methods are designed to provide a confidence level on their predictions, and most users still rely improperly on the mean absolute error as…

The practice of uncertainty quantification (UQ) validation, notably in machine learning for the physico-chemical sciences, rests on several graphical methods (scattering plots, calibration curves, reliability diagrams and confidence curves)…

As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical for ensuring the safety and reliability of these models. Traditional UQ methods rely on specifying a…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for the use of machine learning in physics, where scientific discoveries depend on validated probabilistic statements. We provide a structured overview of uncertainty quantification in ML for…

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

Uncertainty estimation bears the potential to make deep learning (DL) systems more reliable. Standard techniques for uncertainty estimation, however, come along with specific combinations of strengths and weaknesses, e.g., with respect to…

Irradiation-induced void swelling is a critical degradation mechanism for structural materials in nuclear reactors, dictating component operational lifespan and safety. While recent machine learning (ML) approaches have improved the…

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for developing machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) in predictive atomistic simulations. Conformal prediction (CP) is a statistical framework that constructs prediction…

Data science and informatics tools have been proliferating recently within the computational materials science and catalysis fields. This proliferation has spurned the creation of various frameworks for automated materials screening,…

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

The Best Estimate plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach for nuclear systems modeling and simulation requires that the prediction uncertainty must be quantified in order to prove that the investigated design stays within acceptance criteria. A…

Computational models in chemistry rely on a number of approximations. The effect of such approximations on observables derived from them is often unpredictable. Therefore, it is challenging to quantify the uncertainty of a computational…

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) in machine learning (ML) regression tasks is becoming the focus of many studies in materials and chemical science. It is now well understood that average calibration is insufficient, and most studies…

The proliferation of Deep Neural Networks has resulted in machine learning systems becoming increasingly more present in various real-world applications. Consequently, there is a growing demand for highly reliable models in many domains,…

A framework is developed based on different uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques in order to assess validation and verification (V&V) metrics in computational physics problems, in general, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD), in…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Complex events originate from other primitive events combined according to defined patterns and rules. Instead of using specialists' manual work to compose the model rules, we use machine learning (ML) to self-define these patterns and…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction…

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying neural networks (NNs) in real-world applications. While existing calibration techniques often rely on post-hoc adjustments or coarse-grained binning methods, they remain limited in…