Related papers: High-Frequency-Based Volatility Model with Network…

Volatility forecasting plays an important role in the financial econometrics. Previous works in this regime are mainly based on applying various GARCH-type models. However, it is hard for people to choose a specific GARCH model which works…

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…

Recent research on graph neural networks (GNNs) has explored mechanisms for capturing local uncertainty and exploiting graph hierarchies to mitigate data sparsity and leverage structural properties. However, the synergistic integration of…

We investigate the performance of the Deep Hedging framework under training paths beyond the (finite dimensional) Markovian setup. In particular we analyse the hedging performance of the original architecture under rough volatility models…

In Gatheral et al. 2018, first posted in 2014, volatility is characterized by fractional behavior with a Hurst exponent $H < 0.5$, challenging traditional views of volatility dynamics. Gatheral et al. demonstrated this using realized…

Reconstructing the equation of motion and thus the network topology of a system from time series is a very important problem. Although many powerful methods have been developed, it remains a great challenge to deal with systems in high…

We propose a new method to estimate structural parameters in multi-way networks while controlling for rich structures of fixed effects. The method is based on a series of classification tasks and is agnostic to both the number and structure…

We propose Variational Heteroscedastic Volatility Model (VHVM) -- an end-to-end neural network architecture capable of modelling heteroscedastic behaviour in multivariate financial time series. VHVM leverages recent advances in several…

This paper estimates models of high frequency index futures returns using `around the clock' 5-minute returns that incorporate the following key features: multiple persistent stochastic volatility factors, jumps in prices and volatilities,…

Heteroskedasticity is a common feature of financial time series and is commonly addressed in the model building process through the use of ARCH and GARCH processes. More recently multivariate variants of these processes have been in the…

Studies often estimate associations between an outcome and multiple variates. For example, studies of diagnostic test accuracy estimate sensitivity and specificity, and studies of predictive and prognostic factors typically estimate…

This paper introduces a novel process for both factor and idiosyncratic volatility matrices whose eigenvalues follow the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model. We call it the factor and idiosyncratic VAR (FIVAR) model. The FIVAR model accounts…

Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…

This paper offers a new approach to modeling and forecasting of nonstationary time series with applications to volatility modeling for financial data. The approach is based on the assumption of local homogeneity: for every time point, there…

Heteroscedastic regression models a Gaussian variable's mean and variance as a function of covariates. Parametric methods that employ neural networks for these parameter maps can capture complex relationships in the data. Yet, optimizing…

Recently artificial neural networks (ANNs) have seen success in volatility prediction, but the literature is divided on where an ANN should be used rather than the common GARCH model. The purpose of this study is to compare the volatility…

The Random Parameters model was proposed to explain the structure of the covariance matrix in problems where most, but not all, of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix can be explained by Random Matrix Theory. In this article, we…

This paper presents a novel application of graph neural networks for modeling and estimating network heterogeneity. Network heterogeneity is characterized by variations in unit's decisions or outcomes that depend not only on its own…

In this paper, we propose a simple, versatile model for learning the structure and parameters of multivariate distributions from a data set. Learning a Markov network from a given data set is not a simple problem, because Markov networks…

Latent variable models have been playing a central role in psychometrics and related fields. In many modern applications, the inference based on latent variable models involves one or several of the following features: (1) the presence of…