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In this paper, we study the valuation of American type derivatives in the stochastic volatility model of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001). We characterize the value of such derivatives as the unique viscosity solution of an…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-15 Alexandre F. Roch

We study the Heston model, where the stock price dynamics is governed by a geometrical (multiplicative) Brownian motion with stochastic variance. We solve the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation exactly and, after integrating out the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Adrian A. Dragulescu , Victor M. Yakovenko

It is widely accepted that there is strong persistence in the volatility of financial time series. The origin of the observed persistence, or long-range memory, is still an open problem as the observed phenomenon could be a spurious effect.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-04-24 Vygintas Gontis , Aleksejus Kononovicius

We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Giacomo Raffaelli , Matteo Marsili

Recently Carr and Wu (2004, 2005) and also Huang and Wu (2004) show that most stochastic processes used in traditional option pricing models can be cast as special cases of time-changed L\'evy processes. In particular these are models which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-10 Lancelot F. James

We propose a factor state-space approach with stochastic volatility to model and forecast the term structure of future contracts on commodities. Our approach builds upon the dynamic 3-factor Nelson-Siegel model and its 4-factor Svensson…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-22 Tore Selland Kleppe , Roman Liesenfeld , Guilherme Valle Moura , Atle Oglend

This paper presents closed-form analytical formulas for pricing volatility and variance derivatives with nonlinear payoffs under discrete-time observations. The analysis is based on a probabilistic approach assuming that the underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-19 Nontawat Bunchak , Udomsak Rakwongwan , Phiraphat Sutthimat

We consider stochastic volatility models under parameter uncertainty and investigate how model derived prices of European options are affected. We let the pricing parameters evolve dynamically in time within a specified region, and…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-12 Samuel N. Cohen , Martin Tegnér

One the one hand, rough volatility has been shown to provide a consistent framework to capture the properties of stock price dynamics both under the historical measure and for pricing purposes. On the other hand, market price of volatility…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-05 Ofelia Bonesini , Antoine Jacquier , Aitor Muguruza

Based on empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is proposed with volatility driven by fractional noise. The model is used to obtain a risk-neutrality option pricing formula and an option pricing equation.

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-12-02 Rui Vilela Mendes , Maria Joao Oliveira

The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random,…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2017-04-26 Jérôme Charles , Sébastien Descotes-Genon , Valentin Niess , Luiz Vale Silva

In an incomplete market driven by time-changed L\'evy noises we consider the problem of hedging a financial position coupled with the underlying risk of model uncertainty. Then we study hedging under worst-case-scenario. The proposed…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-15 Giulia Di Nunno , Erik Hove Karlsen

This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-08-21 Filip Zikes , Jozef Barunik

Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yukun Ding , Jinglan Liu , Jinjun Xiong , Yiyu Shi

Time series forecasting is crucial for decision-making across various domains, particularly in financial markets where stock prices exhibit complex and non-linear behaviors. Accurately predicting future price movements is challenging due to…

General Economics · Economics 2025-04-29 Tiantian Tu

We study a generalization of the Heston model, which consists of two coupled stochastic differential equations, one for the stock price and the other one for the volatility. We consider a cubic nonlinearity in the first equation and a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 G. Bonanno , D. Valenti , B. Spagnolo

High frequency data in finance have led to a deeper understanding on probability distributions of market prices. Several facts seem to be well stablished by empirical evidence. Specifically, probability distributions have the following…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Jaume Masoliver , Miquel Montero , Josep M. Porra

We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-12-05 Mario Bonino , Matteo Camelia , Paolo Pigato

The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-04 Yue Wu , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Zoubin Ghahramani

Standard quantitative models of the stock market predict a log-normal distribution for stock returns (Bachelier 1900, Osborne 1959), but it is recognised (Fama 1965) that empirical data, in comparison with a Gaussian, exhibit leptokurtosis…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Gilles Daniel