Related papers: Forecasting Electricity Prices
Electricity price is a key factor affecting the decision-making for all market participants. Accurate forecasting of electricity prices is very important and is also very challenging since electricity price is highly volatile due to various…
The growing reliance on renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, has introduced challenges due to their uncontrollable production. This complicates maintaining the electrical grid balance, prompting some transmission system…
In electricity markets, futures contracts typically function as a swap since they deliver the underlying over a period of time. In this paper, we introduce a market price for the delivery periods of electricity swaps, thereby opening an…
Accurate forecasts of electricity spot prices are essential to the daily operational and planning decisions made by power producers and distributors. Typically, point forecasts of these quantities suffice, particularly in the Nord Pool…
Volatile electrical energy prices are a challenge and an opportunity for small and medium-size companies in energy-intensive industries. By using electrical energy storage and/or an adaptation of production processes, companies can…
The European Power Exchange has introduced day-ahead auctions and continuous trading spot markets to facilitate the insertion of renewable electricity. These markets are designed to balance excess or lack of power in short time periods,…
The integration of renewable generation poses operational and economic challenges for the electricity grid. For the core problem of power balance, the legacy paradigm of tailoring supply to follow random demand may be inappropriate under…
Hydroelectric power (hydropower) is unique in that it can function as both a conventional source of electricity and as backup storage (pumped hydroelectric storage) for providing energy in times of high demand on the grid. This study…
Uncertainties from deepening penetration of renewable energy resources have posed critical challenges to the secure and reliable operations of future electric grids. Among various approaches for decision making in uncertain environments,…
High shares of variable renewable energy necessitate substantial energy storage capacity. However, it remains unclear how to design a market that, on the one hand, ensures a stable and sufficient income for storage firms, and, on the other…
In many markets, like electricity or cloud computing markets, providers incur large costs for keeping sufficient capacity in reserve to accommodate demand fluctuations of a mostly fixed user base. These costs are significantly affected by…
The energy sector is experiencing rapid transformation due to increasing renewable energy integration, decentralisation of power systems, and a heightened focus on efficiency and sustainability. With energy demand becoming increasingly…
Electricity price forecasting approaches generally fall into two categories: data-driven models, which learn from historical patterns, or fundamental models, which simulate market mechanisms. We propose a novel and highly efficient…
Probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly important for short-term power-system operation. With increasing renewable generation, demand-side flexibility, and storage assets, market participants need to…
Electricity is typically traded in day-ahead auctions because many power system decisions, such as unit commitment, must be made in advance. However, when wind and solar generators sell power one day ahead, they face uncertainty about their…
Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient…
Wind energy has emerged as one of the most vital and economically viable forms of renewable energy. The integration of wind energy sources into power grids across the globe has been increasing substantially, largely due to the higher levels…
The South Australia region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) displays some of the highest levels of price volatility observed in modern electricity markets. This paper outlines an approach to probabilistic forecasting…
In this work we considered several hybrid modelling approaches for forecasting energy spot prices in EPEC market. Hybridization is performed through combining a Naive model, Fourier analysis, ARMA and GARCH models, a mean-reversion and…
We introduce the concept of temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) in predicting day-ahead electricity prices and show that reconciling forecasts for hourly products and 2- to 24-hour blocks can significantly (up to 13%) improve accuracy at…