Related papers: Forecasting Electricity Prices
Precise day-ahead forecasts for electricity prices are crucial to ensure efficient portfolio management, support strategic decision-making for power plant operations, enable efficient battery storage optimization, and facilitate demand…
The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices…
Since the 1990s, widespread introduction of central (wholesale) electricity markets has been seen across multiple continents, driven by the search for efficient operation of the power grid through competition. The increase of renewables has…
Our paper aims to model and forecast the electricity price by taking a completely new perspective on the data. It will be the first approach which is able to combine the insights of market structure models with extensive and modern…
Electricity price forecasting is an essential task in all the deregulated markets of the world. The accurate prediction of the day-ahead electricity prices is an active research field and available data from various markets can be used as…
Electricity price forecasting is a critical tool for the efficient operation of power systems and for supporting informed decision-making by market participants. This paper explores a novel methodology aimed at improving the accuracy of…
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. Demand and supply are balanced on a knife-edge because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is…
This review presents the set of electricity price models proposed in the literature since the opening of power markets. We focus on price models applied to financial pricing and risk management. We classify these models according to their…
The participation of consumers and producers in demand response programs has increased in smart grids, which reduces investment and operation costs of power systems. Also, with the advent of renewable energy sources, the electricity market…
In this paper we propose a new method for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices. It is based on averaging point forecasts from different models combined with expectile regression. We show that deriving the predicted distribution…
Researchers and electricity sector practitioners frequently require the supply curve of electricity markets and the price elasticity of supply for purposes such as price forecasting, policy analyses or market power assessment. It is common…
The recent research report of U.S. Department of Energy prompts us to re-examine the pricing theories applied in electricity market design. The theory of spot pricing is the basis of electricity market design in many countries, but it has…
Probabilistic forecasting in combination with stochastic programming is a key tool for handling the growing uncertainties in future energy systems. Derived from a general stochastic programming formulation for the optimal scheduling and…
Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation…
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the…
We propose a novel machine learning approach for probabilistic forecasting of hourly day-ahead electricity prices. In contrast with the recent advances in data-rich probabilistic forecasting, which approximates distributions with few…
In this paper we investigate predictability of electricity prices in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Ontario, as well as in the US Mid-C market. Using scale-dependent detrended fluctuation analysis, spectral analysis, and the…
An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over…
Efficiently accommodating uncertain renewable resources in wholesale electricity markets is among the foremost priorities of market regulators in the US, UK and EU nations. However, existing deterministic market designs fail to internalize…
In two-stage electricity markets, renewable power producers enter the day-ahead market with a forecast of future power generation and then reconcile any forecast deviation in the real-time market at a penalty. The choice of the forecast…