Related papers: How far can we trust climate change predictions?
Precise and reliable climate projections are required for climate adaptation and mitigation, but Earth system models still exhibit great uncertainties. Several approaches have been developed to reduce the spread of climate projections and…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
The climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change (Houghton et al, 2001). Many observationally-based estimates of climate sensitivity (S) have been presented in…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…
Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
Climate exhibits a vast range of dissipative structures. Some have characteristic times of a few days; others evolve on thousands of years. All these structures are interdependent; in other words, they communicate. It is often considered…
Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…
Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their…
The IPCC AR6 assessment of the impacts and risks associated with projected climate changes for the 21st century is both alarming and ambiguous. According to computer projections, the global surface may warm from 1.3 to 8.0 {\deg}C by 2100,…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important,…
Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization…
Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Climate models are often affected by long-term drift that is revealed by the evolution of global variables such as the ocean temperature or the surface air temperature. This spurious trend reduces the fidelity to initial conditions and has…
The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…