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This paper studies inference in randomized controlled trials with covariate-adaptive randomization when there are multiple treatments. More specifically, we study inference about the average effect of one or more treatments relative to…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-21 Federico A. Bugni , Ivan A. Canay , Azeem M. Shaikh

Embarrassingly parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) exploits parallel computing to scale Bayesian inference to large datasets by using a two-step approach. First, MCMC is run in parallel on (sub)posteriors defined on data partitions.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-31 Daniel Augusto de Souza , Diego Mesquita , Samuel Kaski , Luigi Acerbi

Covariate adjustment is an approach to improve the precision of trial analyses by adjusting for baseline variables that are prognostic of the primary endpoint. Motivated by the SEARCH Universal HIV Test-and-Treat Trial (2013-2017), we tell…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Laura B. Balzer , Mark J. van der Laan , Maya L. Petersen

Gaussian variational approximation is a popular methodology to approximate posterior distributions in Bayesian inference especially in high dimensional and large data settings. To control the computational cost while being able to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-07 Bingxin Zhou , Junbin Gao , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Richard Gerlach

Fluid approximation is a widely used approach for solving two-stage stochastic optimization problems, with broad applications in service system design such as call centers and healthcare operations. However, replacing the underlying random…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-19 Can Er , Mo Liu

The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is the standard measure of a biomarker's discriminatory accuracy; however, naive AUC estimates can be misleading when validation cohorts differ from the intended target population. Such covariate shifts…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Jiajun Liu , Guangcai Mao , Xiaofei Wang

Adapted from biological sequence alignment, trace alignment is a process mining technique used to visualize and analyze workflow data. Any analysis done with this method, however, is affected by the alignment quality. The best existing…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-09-19 Shuhong Chen , Sen Yang , Moliang Zhou , Randall S. Burd , Ivan Marsic

Major advances have been made regarding the utilization of artificial intelligence in health care. In particular, deep learning approaches have been successfully applied for automated and assisted disease diagnosis and prognosis based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-24 Max Westphal , Antonia Zapf , Werner Brannath

This paper develops an empirical balancing approach for the estimation of treatment effects under two-sided noncompliance using a binary conditionally independent instrumental variable. The method weighs both treatment and outcome…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-07-10 Phillip Heiler

Bridging the gap between internal and external validity is crucial for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), favoured for their internal validity due to randomisation, often encounter challenges in…

Algorithmic decision making process now affects many aspects of our lives. Standard tools for machine learning, such as classification and regression, are subject to the bias in data, and thus direct application of such off-the-shelf tools…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-16 Junpei Komiyama , Hajime Shimao

The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated control units that matches the pre-treatment trajectory. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Emil Javurek , Konstantin Hess , Yuchen Ma , Stefan Feuerriegel

Stepped-wedge cluster randomised trials (SW-CRTs) increasingly evaluate complex interventions, yet methodological guidance for analysing composite endpoints using generalized pairwise comparisons (GPC)remains limited. This work investigates…

We propose a dynamic allocation procedure that increases power and efficiency when measuring an average treatment effect in sequential randomized trials. Subjects arrive iteratively and are either randomized or paired via a matching…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-05-23 Adam Kapelner , Abba Krieger

Near-field integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) enables object-level sensing from distance-dependent array responses, yet most existing near-field methods still rely on point-target models and realistic extended targets remain…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-25 Zongyao Zhao , Zhaolin Wang , Lincong Han , Jing Jin , Yuanwei Liu , Kaibin Huang

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-08 Kush Bhatia , Nikki Lijing Kuang , Yi-An Ma , Yixin Wang

Bias correction can often improve the finite sample performance of estimators. We show that the choice of bias correction method has no effect on the higher-order variance of semiparametrically efficient parametric estimators, so long as…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-29 Jinyong Hahn , David W. Hughes , Guido Kuersteiner , Whitney K. Newey

Modeled along the truncated approach in Panigrahi (2016), selection-adjusted inference in a Bayesian regime is based on a selective posterior. Such a posterior is determined together by a generative model imposed on data and the selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-12 Snigdha Panigrahi , Jonathan Taylor

Nonparametric tests provide robust and powerful alternatives to the corresponding least squares methods. There are two approaches to nonparametric pairwise comparisons of treatment effects, the method based on pairwise rankings and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Hossein Mansouri , Fangyuan Zhang

Scientists often use a paired comparison of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves to decide which continuous cancer screening test has the best diagnostic accuracy. In the paired design, all participants are screened…