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Time series forecasting (TSF) is a fundamental and widely studied task, spanning methods from classical statistical approaches to modern deep learning and multimodal language modeling. Despite their effectiveness, these methods often follow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Mingyue Cheng , Jiahao Wang , Daoyu Wang , Xiaoyu Tao , Qi Liu , Enhong Chen

While recent advancements in foundation models have significantly impacted machine learning, rigorous tests on the performance of time series foundation models (TSFMs) remain largely underexplored. This paper presents an empirical study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Syamantak Datta Gupta

Short-term precipitation forecasting remains challenging due to the difficulty in capturing long-term spatiotemporal dependencies. Current deep learning methods fall short in establishing effective dependencies between conditions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 ChaoRong Li , XuDong Ling , YiLan Xue , Wenjie Luo , LiHong Zhu , FengQing Qin , Yaodong Zhou , Yuanyuan Huang

Although Transformers excel in natural language processing, their extension to time series forecasting remains challenging due to insufficient consideration of the differences between textual and temporal modalities. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Zhipeng Liu , Peibo Duan , Xuan Tang , Baixin Li , Yongsheng Huang , Mingyang Geng , Changsheng Zhang , Bin Zhang , Binwu Wang

Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Xin Qiu , Junlong Tong , Yirong Sun , Yunpu Ma , Wei Zhang , Xiaoyu Shen

In the smart grid of the future, accurate load forecasts on the level of individual clients can help to balance supply and demand locally and to prevent grid outages. While the number of monitored clients will increase with the ongoing…

While numerous forecasters have been proposed using different network architectures, the Transformer-based models have state-of-the-art performance in time series forecasting. However, forecasters based on Transformers are still suffering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Kun Yi , Jingru Fei , Qi Zhang , Hui He , Shufeng Hao , Defu Lian , Wei Fan

Combining attention with recurrence has shown to be valuable in sequence modeling, including hydrological predictions. Here, we explore the strength of Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) over Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-06-27 Sinan Rasiya Koya , Tirthankar Roy

The self-attention mechanism in Transformer architecture, invariant to sequence order, necessitates positional embeddings to encode temporal order in time series prediction. We argue that this reliance on positional embeddings restricts the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Yongbo Yu , Weizhong Yu , Feiping Nie , Xuelong Li

We present a large scale benchmark of modern deep learning architectures for a financial time series prediction and position sizing task, with a primary focus on Sharpe ratio optimization. Evaluating linear models, recurrent networks,…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-03 Adir Saly-Kaufmann , Kieran Wood , Jan Peter-Calliess , Stefan Zohren

Multivariate time series long-term prediction, which aims to predict the change of data in a long time, can provide references for decision-making. Although transformer-based models have made progress in this field, they usually do not make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Chengqing Yu , Fei Wang , Zezhi Shao , Tao Sun , Lin Wu , Yongjun Xu

Time series prediction with deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory neural networks (LSTMs), have scored significant achievements in recent years. Despite the fact that the LSTMs can help to capture long-term dependencies,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-12 Youru Li , Zhenfeng Zhu , Deqiang Kong , Hua Han , Yao Zhao

As industrial systems become more complex and monitoring sensors for everything from surveillance to our health become more ubiquitous, multivariate time series prediction is taking an important place in the smooth-running of our society. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-03 Fan Jin , Ke Zhang , Yipan Huang , Yifei Zhu , Baiping Chen

Time-series forecasting plays a critical role in many real-world applications. Although increasingly powerful models have been developed and achieved superior results on benchmark datasets, through a fine-grained sample-level inspection, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Zhining Liu , Ze Yang , Xiao Lin , Ruizhong Qiu , Tianxin Wei , Yada Zhu , Hendrik Hamann , Jingrui He , Hanghang Tong

Time series forecasting is important in finance domain. Financial time series (TS) patterns are influenced by both short-term public opinions and medium-/long-term policy and market trends. Hence, processing multi-period inputs becomes…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-03 Xu Zhang , Zhengang Huang , Yunzhi Wu , Xun Lu , Erpeng Qi , Yunkai Chen , Zhongya Xue , Qitong Wang , Peng Wang , Wei Wang

Optimal decision-making in social settings is often based on forecasts from time series (TS) data. Recently, several approaches using deep neural networks (DNNs) such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been introduced for TS…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Philippe Chatigny , Jean-Marc Patenaude , Shengrui Wang

This study explores the efficacy of a Transformer model for 120-hour streamflow prediction across 125 diverse locations in Iowa, US. Utilizing data from the preceding 72 hours, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, and discharge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Bekir Z. Demiray , Ibrahim Demir

Transformer-based models have emerged as promising tools for time series forecasting. However, these model cannot make accurate prediction for long input time series. On the one hand, they failed to capture global dependencies within time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-16 YanJun Zhao , Ziqing Ma , Tian Zhou , Liang Sun , Mengni Ye , Yi Qian

We introduce a temporal feature encoding architecture called Time Series Representation Model (TSRM) for multivariate time series forecasting and imputation. The architecture is structured around CNN-based representation layers, each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Robert Leppich , Michael Stenger , Daniel Grillmeyer , Vanessa Borst , Samuel Kounev

Transformers have demonstrated remarkable efficacy in forecasting time series data. However, their extensive dependence on self-attention mechanisms demands significant computational resources, thereby limiting their practical applicability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-26 Cat P. Le , Chris Cannella , Ali Hasan , Yuting Ng , Vahid Tarokh