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In this paper we present a data-adaptive estimation procedure for estimation of average treatment effects in a time-to-event setting based on generalized random forests. In these kinds of settings, the definition of causal effect parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-28 Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Claus T. Ekstrøm , Lars V. Kessing , Thomas A. Gerds

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited sample sizes due to high costs and lengthy recruitment periods, compromising precision in treatment effect estimation. External real-world control data offer a valuable…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-05 Peng Wu , Jile Chaoge , Shu Yang

Since the average treatment effect (ATE) measures the change in social welfare, even if positive, there is a risk of negative effect on, say, some 10% of the population. Assessing such risk is difficult, however, because any one individual…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Nathan Kallus

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often exhibit limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to small sample sizes. In recent years, the combination of external controls has gained increasing attention as a means of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu

Individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation is to evaluate the causal effects of treatment strategies on some important outcomes, which is a crucial problem in healthcare. Most existing ITE estimation methods are designed for centralized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Changchang Yin , Hong-You Chen , Wei-Lun Chao , Ping Zhang

We study the problem of estimating the continuous response over time to interventions using observational time series---a retrospective dataset where the policy by which the data are generated is unknown to the learner. We are motivated by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-13 Yanbo Xu , Yanxun Xu , Suchi Saria

Estimating individualized treatment rules (ITRs) is fundamental to precision medicine, where the goal is to tailor treatment decisions to individual patient characteristics. While numerous methods have been developed for ITR estimation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Eun Jeong Oh , Min Qian

This study investigates the problem of individualizing treatment allocations using stated preferences for treatments. If individuals know in advance how the assignment will be individualized based on their stated preferences, they may state…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-16 Daido Kido

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-27 Daniel K. Sewell , Aaron Miller

Conditional effect estimation has great scientific and policy importance because interventions may impact subjects differently depending on their characteristics. Most research has focused on estimating the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

Synthesizing information from multiple data sources is crucial for constructing accurate individualized treatment rules (ITRs). However, privacy concerns often present significant barriers to the integrative analysis of such multi-source…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Nan Qiao , Wangcheng Li , Jingxiao Zhang , Canyi Chen

We consider challenges that arise in the estimation of the mean outcome under an optimal individualized treatment strategy defined as the treatment rule that maximizes the population mean outcome, where the candidate treatment rules are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Alexander R. Luedtke , Mark J. van der Laan

Individualizing treatment assignment can improve outcomes for diseases with patient-to-patient variability in comparative treatment effects. When a clinical trial demonstrates that some patients improve on treatment while others do not, it…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-02 Nina Galanter , Marco Carone , Ronald C. Kessler , Alex Luedtke

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

The average treatment effect (ATE) is popularly used to assess the treatment effect. However, the ATE implicitly assumes a homogenous treatment effect even amongst individuals with different characteristics. In this paper, we mainly focus…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-10 Yunjian Yin , Lan Liu , Zhi Geng

Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) provide a systematic approach for making sequential treatment decisions that adapt to individual patient characteristics, particularly in clinical contexts where survival outcomes are of interest.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Animesh Kumar Paul , Russell Greiner

This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-23 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Giorgio Gnecco

Personalized medicine seeks to identify the causal effect of treatment for a particular patient as opposed to a clinical population at large. Most investigators estimate such personalized treatment effects by regressing the outcome of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-02 Eric V. Strobl , Shyam Visweswaran

This paper introduces ICET, a new algorithm for cost-sensitive classification. ICET uses a genetic algorithm to evolve a population of biases for a decision tree induction algorithm. The fitness function of the genetic algorithm is the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2009-09-25 P. D. Turney

Quantifying causal effects in the presence of complex and multivariate outcomes remains a key challenge in treatment evaluation. For hierarchical multivariate outcomes, the FDA recommends the Win Ratio and Generalized Pairwise Comparisons…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Mathieu Even , Julie Josse