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An efficient simulation-based methodology is proposed for the rolling window estimation of state space models, called particle rolling Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with double block sampling. In our method, which is based on Sequential…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-17 Naoki Awaya , Yasuhiro Omori

In this paper, we derive rigorously a non-local cross-diffusion system from an interacting stochastic many-particle system in the whole space. The convergence is proved in the sense of probability by introducing an intermediate particle…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-22 Yue Li , Li Chen , Zhipeng Zhang

We consider a continuous time Markov chain on a countable state space and prove a joint large deviation principle for the empirical measure and the empirical flow, which accounts for the total number of jumps between pairs of states. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-19 Lorenzo Bertini , Alessandra Faggionato , Davide Gabrielli

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

From its inception in the 1950s to the modern frontiers of applied statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo has been one of the most ubiquitous and successful methods in statistical computing. In that time its development has been fueled by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-11 Michael Betancourt

Tasks such as record linkage and multi-target tracking, which involve reconstructing the set of objects that underlie some observed data, are particularly challenging for probabilistic inference. Recent work has achieved efficient and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Brian Milch , Stuart Russell

The Monte Carlo algorithm is increasingly utilized, with its central step involving computer-based random sampling from stochastic models. While both Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Reject Monte Carlo serve as sampling methods, the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-02-28 Fengyu Li , Huijiao Yu , Jun Yan , Xianyong Meng

Metropolis Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful tool for studying the equilibrium properties of matter. In complex condensed-phase systems, however, it is difficult to design Monte Carlo moves with high acceptance probabilities that also…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-05-27 Jerome P. Nilmeier , Gavin E. Crooks , David D. L. Minh , John D. Chodera

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-13 Tianqi Chen , Emily B. Fox , Carlos Guestrin

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) methods provide a useful alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for performing inference of intractable distributions. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithms constitute a family of AIS…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-13 Soumyasundar Pal , Antonios Valkanas , Mark Coates

We present a general-purpose method to train Markov chain Monte Carlo kernels, parameterized by deep neural networks, that converge and mix quickly to their target distribution. Our method generalizes Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and is trained…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-06 Daniel Levy , Matthew D. Hoffman , Jascha Sohl-Dickstein

We analyze the probability distributions of the quantum walks induced from Markov chains by Szegedy (2004). The first part of this paper is devoted to the quantum walks induced from finite state Markov chains. It is shown that the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-12-19 Radhakrishnan Balu , Chaobin Liu , Salvador E. Venegas-Andraca

In the context of Monte Carlo sampling for lattice models, the complexity of the energy landscape often leads to Markov chains being trapped in local optima, thereby increasing the correlation between samples and reducing sampling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-10-29 Jiewei Ding , Jiahao Su , Ho-Kin Tang , Wing Chi Yu

This paper is a tutorial and literature review on sampling algorithms. We have two main types of sampling in statistics. The first type is survey sampling which draws samples from a set or population. The second type is sampling from…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Benyamin Ghojogh , Hadi Nekoei , Aydin Ghojogh , Fakhri Karray , Mark Crowley

In this article we propose a novel MCMC method based on deterministic transformations T: X x D --> X where X is the state-space and D is some set which may or may not be a subset of X. We refer to our new methodology as Transformation-based…

Computation · Statistics 2013-10-21 Somak Dutta , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Normalizing flows (NF) use a continuous generator to map a simple latent (e.g. Gaussian) distribution, towards an empirical target distribution associated with a training data set. Once trained by minimizing a variational objective, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-23 Florentin Coeurdoux , Nicolas Dobigeon , Pierre Chainais

Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are widely used in signal processing and communications for statistical inference and stochastic optimization. In this work, we introduce an efficient adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to draw samples…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-17 David Luengo , Luca Martino

We introduce a statistical mechanics formalism for the study of constrained graph evolution as a Markovian stochastic process, in analogy with that available for spin systems, deriving its basic properties and highlighting the role of the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-05-13 A. C. C. Coolen , A. De Martino , A. Annibale

We present a stochastic model of population dynamics exploiting cross-sectional data in trend analysis and forecasts for groups and cohorts of a population. While sharing the convenient features of classic Markov models, it alleviates the…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-20 Agnieszka Werpachowska , Roman Werpachowski

We offer a new proposal for the Monte Carlo treatment of many-fermion systems in continuous space. It is based upon Diffusion Monte Carlo with significant modifications: correlated pairs of random walkers that carry opposite signs;…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 M. H. Kalos , Francesco Pederiva
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