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Electronic health record (EHR) data are increasingly used to support real-world evidence (RWE) studies. Yet its ability to generate reliable RWE is limited by the lack of readily available precise information on the timing of clinical…

Causal inference in continuous-time sequential decision problems is challenged by hidden confounders. We show that, in latent state-space models with time-varying interventions, observability of the latent dynamics from observed data is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Jennifer Wendland , Nicolas Freitag , Maik Kschischo

While tumor dynamic modeling has been widely applied to support the development of oncology drugs, there remains a need to increase predictivity, enable personalized therapy, and improve decision-making. We propose the use of Tumor Dynamic…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-10-24 Mark Laurie , James Lu

Survival analysis plays a crucial role in estimating the likelihood of future events for patients by modeling time-to-event data, particularly in healthcare settings where predictions about outcomes such as death and disease recurrence are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Muhammad Ridzuan , Numan Saeed , Fadillah Adamsyah Maani , Karthik Nandakumar , Mohammad Yaqub

Capturing the inter-dependencies among multiple types of clinically-critical events is critical not only to accurate future event prediction, but also to better treatment planning. In this work, we propose a deep latent state-space…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-30 Yuan Xue , Denny Zhou , Nan Du , Andrew M. Dai , Zhen Xu , Kun Zhang , Claire Cui

In different areas of research, multiple recurrent competing risks (RCR) are often observed on the same observational unit. For instance, different types of cancer relapses are observed on the same patient and several types of component…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-27 Piaomu Liu

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Nabeel Seedat , Fergus Imrie , Alexis Bellot , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Irregularly measured time series are common in many of the applied settings in which time series modelling is a key statistical tool, including medicine. This provides challenges in model choice, often necessitating imputation or similar…

Prognostication for lung cancer, a leading cause of mortality, remains a complex task, as it needs to quantify the associations of risk factors and health events spanning a patient's entire life. One challenge is that an individual's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-28 Stephen Salerno , Yi Li

Time-to-event modelling, known as survival analysis, differs from standard regression as it addresses censoring in patients who do not experience the event of interest. Despite competitive performances in tackling this problem, machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-12 Vincent Jeanselme , Chang Ho Yoon , Brian Tom , Jessica Barrett

Modern health data science applications leverage abundant molecular and electronic health data, providing opportunities for machine learning to build statistical models to support clinical practice. Time-to-event analysis, also called…

We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Disease progression modeling aims to characterize and predict how a patient's disease complications worsen over time based on longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). For diseases such as type 2 diabetes, accurate progression modeling…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Tingsong Xiao , Yao An Lee , Zelin Xu , Yupu Zhang , Zibo Liu , Yu Huang , Jiang Bian , Jingchuan Guo , Zhe Jiang

In the following short article we adapt a new and popular machine learning model for inference on medical data sets. Our method is based on the Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) framework that we adapt to survival analysis on small data sets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-06 Cédric Beaulac , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal , David Hodgson

Two challenging problems in the clinical study of cancer are the characterization of cancer subtypes and the classification of individual patients according to those subtypes. Statistical approaches addressing these problems are hampered by…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-28 John A. Dawson , Christina Kendziorski

Survival analysis, the art of time-to-event modeling, plays an important role in clinical treatment decisions. Recently, continuous time models built from neural ODEs have been proposed for survival analysis. However, the training of neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-24 Xintian Han , Mark Goldstein , Rajesh Ranganath

In healthcare, risk assessment of patient outcomes has been based on survival analysis for a long time, i.e. modeling time-to-event associations. However, conventional approaches rely on data from a single time-point, making them suboptimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-20 Mine Öğretir , Miika Koskinen , Juha Sinisalo , Risto Renkonen , Harri Lähdesmäki

Clinical time series data from electronic health records and medical registries offer unprecedented opportunities to understand patient trajectories and inform medical decision-making. However, leveraging such data presents significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-21 Muhammad Aslanimoghanloo , Ahmed ElGazzar , Marcel van Gerven

Rapid and accurate identification of Venous thromboembolism (VTE), a severe cardiovascular condition including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), is important for effective treatment. Leveraging Natural Language…

In recent years, there has been growing interest in causal machine learning estimators for quantifying subject-specific effects of a binary treatment on time-to-event outcomes. Estimation approaches have been proposed which attenuate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-30 Matthew Pryce , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Ruth H. Keogh , Stijn Vansteelandt
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