Related papers: Calibrating distribution models from PELVE
This paper explores option portfolio optimization when the underlying returns are skew-elliptical t-distributed. We use the variance and value at risk (VaR) to measure portfolio risk. The novelty of our work is the departure from the…
Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…
Expected Shortfall (ES), the average loss above a high quantile, is the current financial regulatory market risk measure. Its estimation and optimization are highly unstable against sample fluctuations and become impossible above a critical…
We propose a risk-averse statistical learning framework wherein the performance of a learning algorithm is evaluated by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of losses rather than the expected loss. We devise algorithms based on stochastic…
Real-time coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) is crucial for regulating the voltage profile in distribution grids. By capitalizing on a scalable neural network (NN) architecture, one can attain decentralized DER decisions to…
The popularity of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk functional from finance, has been growing in the control systems community due to its intuitive interpretation and axiomatic foundation. We consider a nonstandard optimal control…
Estimating the unconstrained mean and covariance matrix is a popular topic in statistics. However, estimation of the parameters of $N_p(\mu,\Sigma)$ under joint constraints such as $\Sigma\mu = \mu$ has not received much attention. It can…
Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is…
Value at Risk (VaR) is a quantitative measure used to evaluate the risk linked to the potential loss of investment or capital. Estimation of the VaR entails the quantification of prospective losses in a portfolio of investments, using a…
We introduce and study the main properties of a class of convex risk measures that refine Expected Shortfall by simultaneously controlling the expected losses associated with different portions of the tail distribution. The corresponding…
Risk management is very important for individual investors or companies. There are many ways to measure the risk of investment. Prices of risky assets vary rapidly and randomly due to the complexity of finance market. Random interval is a…
Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a family of "coherent risk measures" which generalize the traditional mathematical expectation. Widely used in mathematical finance, it is garnering increasing interest in machine learning, e.g., as an…
To be considered reliable, a model must be calibrated so that its confidence in each decision closely reflects its true outcome. In this blogpost we'll take a look at the most commonly used definition for calibration and then dive into a…
Managing insurance and financial risk when data is limited is a key task in the insurance industry. In this paper, we focus on cases where the risk distribution is modeled as a mixture with some components estimable to high precision or…
Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric…
The use of non-translation invariant risk measures within the equal risk pricing (ERP) methodology for the valuation of financial derivatives is investigated. The ability to move beyond the class of convex risk measures considered in…
The stochastic variational inequality problem (SVIP) is an equilibrium model that includes random variables and has been widely applied in various fields such as economics and engineering. Expected residual minimization (ERM) is an…
Most machine learning classifiers are designed to output posterior probabilities for the classes given the input sample. These probabilities may be used to make the categorical decision on the class of the sample; provided as input to a…
In this work, we study the sample complexity problem of risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL) with a generative model, where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance level $\tau$ at each step, a…
Propensity score methods are widely used for estimating treatment effects from observational studies. A popular approach is to estimate propensity scores by maximum likelihood based on logistic regression, and then apply inverse probability…