Related papers: Hierarchical Embedded Bayesian Additive Regression…

Some applied researchers hesitate to use nonparametric methods, worrying that they will lose power in small samples or overfit the data when simpler models are sufficient. We argue that at least some of these concerns are unfounded when…

Staged trees are a relatively recent class of probabilistic graphical models that extend Bayesian networks to formally and graphically account for non-symmetric patterns of dependence. Machine learning algorithms to learn them from data…

Analyzing data collected from multiple sources to estimate common and heterogeneous structures through a hierarchical model is a central task in Bayesian inference, and to this end, Bayesian factor models are one of the most widely used…

We develop sampling algorithms to fit Bayesian hierarchical models, the computational complexity of which scales linearly with the number of observations and the number of parameters in the model. We focus on crossed random effect and…

The Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) is a well-known tree-based model for regression and classification, based on soft probabilistic splits. In its original formulation it was trained by maximum likelihood, and is therefore prone to…

Ensemble of regression trees have become popular statistical tools for the estimation of conditional mean given a set of predictors. However, quantile regression trees and their ensembles have not yet garnered much attention despite the…

This paper presents a novel nonlinear regression model for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data, geared specifically towards situations with small effect sizes, heterogeneous effects, and strong confounding.…

Hierarchical Bayesian methods enable information sharing across multiple related regression problems. While standard practice is to model regression parameters (effects) as (1) exchangeable across datasets and (2) correlated to differing…

A major focus of causal inference is the estimation of heterogeneous average treatment effects (HTE) - average treatment effects within strata of another variable of interest such as levels of a biomarker, education, or age strata.…

A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…

Additive models, such as produced by gradient boosting, and full interaction models, such as classification and regression trees (CART), are widely used algorithms that have been investigated largely in isolation. We show that these models…

Bayesian Causal Forests (BCF) is a causal inference machine learning model based on a highly flexible non-parametric regression and classification tool called Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Motivated by data from the Trends in…

The nested error regression model is a useful tool for analyzing clustered (grouped) data, and is especially used in small area estimation. The classical nested error regression model assumes normality of random effects and error terms, and…

Censoring occurs when an outcome is unobserved beyond some threshold value. Methods that do not account for censoring produce biased predictions of the unobserved outcome. This paper introduces Type I Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Tree…

Tree-based methods are powerful nonparametric techniques in statistics and machine learning. However, their effectiveness, particularly in finite-sample settings, is not fully understood. Recent applications have revealed their surprising…

The success of Bayesian inference with MCMC depends critically on Markov chains rapidly reaching the posterior distribution. Despite the plentitude of inferential theory for posteriors in Bayesian non-parametrics, convergence properties of…

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…

Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) is a popular framework for estimating a causal effect in settings where treatment is assigned if an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. We consider estimation and inference in the common…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient global optimization algorithm for black-box functions which are expensive to evaluate. Existing literature on model based optimization in conditional parameter spaces are usually built on…

Popular parametric and semiparametric hazards regression models for clustered survival data are inappropriate and inadequate when the unknown effects of different covariates and clustering are complex. This calls for a flexible modeling…