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We propose a generalization of the classical notion of the $V@R_{\lambda}$ that takes into account not only the probability of the losses, but the balance between such probability and the amount of the loss. This is obtained by defining a…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-09-07 Marco Frittelli , Marco Maggis , Ilaria Peri

Random measures provide flexible parameters for Bayesian nonparametric models. Given two different priors for a random measure, we develop a natural framework to investigate the rate at which the corresponding posteriors merge, as the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-17 Marta Catalano , Hugo Lavenant

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-05 Ali Reza Fotouhi

Robust regression has attracted a great amount of attention in the literature recently, particularly for taking asymmetricity into account simultaneously and for high-dimensional analysis. However, the majority of research on the topics…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Sanna Soomro , Keming Yu , Yan Yu

Bayesian inference and Gaussian processes are widely used in applications ranging from robotics and control to biological systems. Many of these applications are safety-critical and require a characterization of the uncertainty associated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-26 Luca Cardelli , Marta Kwiatkowska , Luca Laurenti , Andrea Patane

A general notion of algebraic conditional plausibility measures is defined. Probability measures, ranking functions, possibility measures, and (under the appropriate definitions) sets of probability measures can all be viewed as defining…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-07-29 Joseph Y. Halpern

This paper proposes two mixed models to study a consumer's optimal saving in the presence of two types of risk.

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-26 Irina Georgescu , Adolfo Cristóbal Campoamor , Ana Maria Lucia Casademunt

Bayesian decision analysis is a useful method for risk management decisions, but is limited in its ability to consider severe uncertainty in knowledge, and value ambiguity in management objectives. We study the use of robust Bayesian…

Applications · Statistics 2022-07-15 Ullrika Sahlin , Matthias C. M. Troffaes , Lennart Edsman

We study strategic interaction in data-driven games where players face uncertainty about payoff distributions inferred from finite samples. To model calibrated attitudes toward such uncertainty, we formulate distributionally robust games…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Bharat Gangwani , Arunesh Sinha

In this paper, we deal with an axiomatic approach to default risk. We introduce the notion of a default risk measure, which generalizes the classical probability of default (PD), and allows to incorporate model risk in various forms. We…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-21 Max Nendel , Jan Streicher

We provide analytical results for a static portfolio optimization problem with two coherent risk measures. The use of two risk measures is motivated by joint decision-making for portfolio selection where the risk perception of the portfolio…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-19 Tahsin Deniz Aktürk , Çağın Ararat

We gain robustness on the quantification of a risk measurement by accounting for all sources of uncertainties tainting the inputs of a computer code. We evaluate the maximum quantile over a class of distributions defined only by constraints…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-03 Jerome Stenger , Fabrice Gamboa , Merlin Keller , Bertrand Iooss

This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-02-11 Christian P. Robert , Jean-Michel Marin , Judith Rousseau

The BK inequality (\cite{BK85}) says that,for product measures on $\{0,1\}^n$, the probability that two increasing events $A$ and $B$ `occur disjointly' is at most the product of the two individual probabilities. The conjecture in…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-26 J. van den Berg , J. Jonasson

When random effects are correlated with sample design variables, the usual approach of employing individual survey weights (constructed to be inversely proportional to the unit survey inclusion probabilities) to form a pseudo-likelihood no…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-26 Terrance D. Savitsky , Matthew R. Williams

This paper offers a critical view of the "worst-case" approach that is the cornerstone of robust control design. It is our contention that a blind acceptance of worst-case scenarios may lead to designs that are actually more dangerous than…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-11-05 Xinjia Chen , Jorge Aravena , Kemin Zhou

We propose an computational framework for real-time risk assessment and prioritizing for random outcomes without prior information on probability distributions. The basic model is built based on satisficing measure (SM) which yields a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-07-03 Wenjie Huang

In Bayesian decision theory, it is known that robustness with respect to the loss and the prior can be improved by adding new observations. In this article we study the rate of robustness improvement with respect to the number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Christophe Abraham , Benoit Cadre

Model risk measures consequences of choosing a model in a class of possible alternatives. We find analytical and simulated bounds for payoff functions on classes of plausible alternatives of a given discrete model. We measure the impact of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-20 Roberto Fontana , Patrizia Semeraro

In this paper we shall consider some famous means such as arithmetic, harmonic, geometric, root square mean, etc. Considering the difference of these means, we can establish. some inequalities among them. Interestingly, the difference of…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2011-03-29 Inder Jeet Taneja