Related papers: Factor Overnight GARCH-It\^o Models

Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have long been considered as one of the most successful families of approaches for volatility modeling in financial return series. In this paper, we propose an…

We propose a two stage procedure for the estimation of the parameters of a fairly general, continuous-time stochastic volatility. An important ingredient of the proposed method is the Cuchiero-Teichmann volatility estimator, which is based…

Predicting the S&P 500 index volatility is crucial for investors and financial analysts as it helps assess market risk and make informed investment decisions. Volatility represents the level of uncertainty or risk related to the size of…

We propose a new framework for modeling stochastic local volatility, with potential applications to modeling derivatives on interest rates, commodities, credit, equity, FX etc., as well as hybrid derivatives. Our model extends the…

We develop a pseudo maximum likelihood method for latent factor analysis in short panels without imposing sphericity nor Gaussianity. We derive an asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test for the number of factors. On a large…

Multivariate spatio-temporal data arise more and more frequently in a wide range of applications; however, there are relatively few general statistical methods that can readily use that incorporate spatial, temporal and variable…

This paper studies the covariance matrix estimation for high-dimensional time series within a new framework that combines low-rank factor and latent variable-specific cluster structures. The popular methods based on assuming the sparse…

The partially observed linear Gaussian system of stochastic differential equations with low noise in observations is considered. A kernel-type estimators are used for estimation of the quadratic variation of the derivative of the limit of…

Based on It\^o semimartingale models, several studies have proposed methods for forecasting intraday volatility using high-frequency financial data. These approaches typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions and are often…

We identify a new variational inference scheme for dynamical systems whose transition function is modelled by a Gaussian process. Inference in this setting has either employed computationally intensive MCMC methods, or relied on…

Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…

Several academics have studied the ability of hybrid models mixing univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and neural networks to deliver better volatility predictions than purely econometric…

This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…

We perform the Bayesian inference of a GARCH model by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with an adaptive proposal density. The adaptive proposal density is assumed to be the Student's t-distribution and the distribution parameters are…

This paper proposes a spatial threshold GARCH-type model for dynamic spatio-temporal integer-valued data with network structure. The proposed model can simplify the parameterization by using network structure in data, and can capture the…

This paper presents closed-form analytical formulas for pricing volatility and variance derivatives with nonlinear payoffs under discrete-time observations. The analysis is based on a probabilistic approach assuming that the underlying…

A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…

In an era when derivatives is getting popular, risk management has gradually become the core content of modern finance. In order to study how to accurately estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index, after introducing the theoretical…

High-frequency data observed on the prices of financial assets are commonly modeled by diffusion processes with micro-structure noise, and realized volatility-based methods are often used to estimate integrated volatility. For problems…

It\^{o} processes are the most common form of continuous semimartingales, and include diffusion processes. This paper is concerned with the nonparametric regression relationship between two such It\^{o} processes. We are interested in the…