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Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-12 Jonathan Heek , Nal Kalchbrenner

The likelihood-free sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms, are increasingly popular inference tools for complex biological models. Such algorithms proceed by constructing a succession of probability distributions over…

Computation · Statistics 2012-10-12 Daniel Silk , Saran Filippi , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful tool for Bayesian statistical inference due to its potential to rapidly explore high dimensional state space, avoiding the random walk behavior typical of many Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers.…

Monte Carlo methods are often necessary for the implementation of optimal Bayesian estimators. A fundamental technique that can be used to generate samples from virtually any target probability distribution is the so-called rejection…

Computation · Statistics 2011-11-22 Luca Martino , Joaquín Míguez

Population Monte Carlo simulations in the form commonly referred to as population annealing can serve as a useful meta-algorithm for simulating systems with complex free-energy landscapes. In the present paper we provide an easily…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-17 P. L. Ebert , D. Gessert , W. Janke , M. Weigel

In statistical data assimilation one seeks the largest maximum of the conditional probability distribution $P(\mathbf{X},\mathbf{p}|\mathbf{Y})$ of model states, $\mathbf{X}$, and parameters,$\mathbf{p}$, conditioned on observations…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-28 Sasha Shirman , Henry D. I. Abarbanel

The multivariate extended skew-normal distribution allows for accommodating raw data which are skewed and heavy tailed, and has at least three appealing statistical properties, namely closure under conditioning, affine transformations, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-19 Mathieu Gerber , Florian Pelgrin

Monte Carlo (MC) methods have become very popular in signal processing during the past decades. The adaptive rejection sampling (ARS) algorithms are well-known MC technique which draw efficiently independent samples from univariate target…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-16 Luca Martino

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

We study numerical integration over bounded regions in $\mathbb{R}^s, s\ge1$ with respect to some probability measure. We replace random sampling with quasi-Monte Carlo methods, where the underlying point set is derived from deterministic…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-01 Tiangang Cui , Josef Dick , Friedrich Pillichshammer

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-02 Borislav Ikonomov , Michael U. Gutmann

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-10 Ahmed Kebaier , Jérôme Lelong

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have a drawback when working with a target distribution or likelihood function that is computationally expensive to evaluate, specially when working with big data. This paper focuses on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-22 Asif J. Chowdhury , Gabriel Terejanu

We introduce a modification of the well-known Metropolis importance sampling algorithm by using a methodology inspired on the consideration of the reparametrization invariance of the microcanonical ensemble. The most important feature of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 L. Velazquez , J. C. Castro Palacio

We analyse a multilevel Monte Carlo method for the approximation of distribution functions of univariate random variables. Since, by assumption, the target distribution is not known explicitly, approximations have to be used. We provide an…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-22 Mike B. Giles , Tigran Nagapetyan , Klaus Ritter

The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes for generating samples from Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm is asymptotically exact, flexible and easy to implement.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Estevão Prado , Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

Orthogonal Monte Carlo (OMC) is a very effective sampling algorithm imposing structural geometric conditions (orthogonality) on samples for variance reduction. Due to its simplicity and superior performance as compared to its Quasi Monte…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-29 Han Lin , Haoxian Chen , Tianyi Zhang , Clement Laroche , Krzysztof Choromanski

The reduced density matrix of excitons coupled to a phonon bath at a finite temperature is studied using the path integral Monte Carlo method. Appropriate choices of estimators and importance sampling schemes are crucial to the performance…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-06-04 Sangwoo Shim , Alán Aspuru-Guzik

High-dimensional data are routinely collected in many areas. We are particularly interested in Bayesian classification models in which one or more variables are imbalanced. Current Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-15 Deborshee Sen , Matthias Sachs , Jianfeng Lu , David Dunson

This paper proposes a new sampling scheme based on Langevin dynamics that is applicable within pseudo-marginal and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. We investigate this algorithm's theoretical properties under standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-30 Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock , Paul Fearnhead