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The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

An efficient simulation-based methodology is proposed for the rolling window estimation of state space models, called particle rolling Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with double block sampling. In our method, which is based on Sequential…

Conventional Monte Carlo simulations are stochastic in the sense that the acceptance of a trial move is decided by comparing a computed acceptance probability with a random number, uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. Here we consider the…

Accurately and efficiently estimating system performance under uncertainty is paramount in power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo simulation is often used for this purpose, but convergence may be slow, especially when detailed…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

Estimating risk measures such as large loss probabilities and Value-at-Risk is fundamental in financial risk management and often relies on computationally intensive nested Monte Carlo methods. While Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC)…

The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is a statistical methodology used in a large number of applications. It uses repeated random sampling to solve problems with a probability interpretation to obtain high-quality numerical results. The MCS is…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Delayed-acceptance is a technique for reducing computational effort for Bayesian models with expensive likelihoods. Using a delayed-acceptance kernel for Markov chain Monte Carlo can reduce the number of expensive likelihoods evaluations…

In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…

A grand canonical Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm is presented for studying the lattice gas model (LGM) of multiple protein sequence alignment, which coherently combines long-range interactions and variable-length insertions. MC simulations are…

RBM-MPC is a computationally efficient variant of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in which the Random Batch Method (RBM) is used to speed up the finite-horizon optimal control problems at each iteration. In this paper, stability and…

The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

The literature in social network analysis has largely focused on methods and models which require complete network data; however there exist many networks which can only be studied via sampling methods due to the scale or complexity of the…

We investigate the stability of a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method applied to the problem of sampling from a target distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ for large $d$. It is well known that using a single importance sampling step one produces…

This paper is on Bayesian inference for parametric statistical models that are defined by a stochastic simulator which specifies how data is generated. Exact sampling is then possible but evaluating the likelihood function is typically…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are generally regarded as the gold standard technique for Bayesian inference. They are theoretically well-understood and conceptually simple to apply in practice. The drawback of MCMC is that in…

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) is solved for power system day-ahead generation scheduling, which is a large-scale mixed-integer linear programming problem and is very computationally intensive. Model reduction of SCUC may bring…

Reliability is a fundamental challenge in operating large-scale machine learning (ML) infrastructures, particularly as the scale of ML models and training clusters continues to grow. Despite decades of research on infrastructure failures,…