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Recently, from the personalized medicine perspective, there has been an increased demand to identify subgroups of subjects for whom treatment is effective. Consequently, the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-02 Ryoma Hieda , Shintaro Yuki , Kensuke Tanioka , Hiroshi Yadohisa

Inferring causal individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is a challenging problem whose difficulty is exacerbated by the presence of treatment assignment bias. In this work, we propose a new way to estimate the ITE using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Abhin Shah , Kartik Ahuja , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Dennis Wei , Kush Varshney , Amit Dhurandhar

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-08 Toon Vanderschueren , Alicia Curth , Wouter Verbeke , Mihaela van der Schaar

In semi-logarithmic regressions, treatment coefficients are often interpreted as approximations of the average treatment effect (ATE) in percentage points. This paper highlights the overlooked bias of this approximation under treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-04 Ying Zeng

Identifying heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in randomized controlled trials is an important step toward understanding and acting on trial results. However, HTEs are often small and difficult to identify, and HTE modeling methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-24 Erin Craig , Donald A Redelmeier , Robert J Tibshirani

Estimating individualised treatment effect (ITE) -- that is the causal effect of a set of variables (also called exposures, treatments, actions, policies, or interventions), referred to as \textit{composite treatments}, on a set of outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Lei Clifton , Gaurav Nigam , David A. Clifton

This paper examines the identification power of instrumental variables (IVs) for average treatment effect (ATE) in partially identified models. We decompose the ATE identification gains into components of contributions driven by IV…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-09-07 Lina Zhang , David T. Frazier , D. S. Poskitt , Xueyan Zhao

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

Randomized trials are typically designed to detect average treatment effects but often lack the statistical power to uncover individual-level treatment effect heterogeneity, limiting their value for personalized decision-making. To address…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-19 Rickard Karlsson , Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Issa J. Dahabreh , Jesse H. Krijthe

With an increasing focus on precision medicine in medical research, numerous studies have been conducted in recent years to clarify the relationship between treatment effects and patient characteristics. The treatment effects for patients…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

Estimating the conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is very important in causal inference and has a wide range of applications across many fields. In the estimation process of CATE, the unconfoundedness assumption is typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Pengfei Shi , Wei Zhong , Xinyu Zhang , Ningtao Wang , Xing Fu , Weiqiang Wang , Yin Jin

Estimating personalized effects of treatments is a complex, yet pervasive problem. To tackle it, recent developments in the machine learning (ML) literature on heterogeneous treatment effect estimation gave rise to many sophisticated, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Jonathan Crabbé , Alicia Curth , Ioana Bica , Mihaela van der Schaar

Conditional effects are commonly used measures for understanding how treatment effects vary across different groups, and are often used to target treatments/interventions to groups who benefit most. In this work we review existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-14 Jiacheng Ge , Iván Díaz

We develop flexible, semiparametric estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) transported to a new population ("target population") that offer potential efficiency gains. Transport may be of value when the ATE may differ across…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-07 Kara E. Rudolph , Nicholas T. Williams , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Ivan Diaz

Estimating how a treatment affects units individually, known as heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, is an essential part of decision-making and policy implementation. The accumulation of large amounts of data in many domains,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

For treatment effects - one of the core issues in modern econometric analysis - prediction and estimation are two sides of the same coin. As it turns out, machine learning methods are the tool for generalized prediction models. Combined…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-04-27 Daniel Jacob

As estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) is increasingly adopted across a wide range of scientific and industrial applications, the treatment action space can naturally expand, from a binary treatment variable to a structured…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Jennifer Y. Zhang , Shuyang Du , Will Y. Zou

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation for model selection as we do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Divyat Mahajan , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Brady Neal , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Recently, the variability ratio (VR) effect size statistic has been used with increasing frequency in the study of differences in variation of a measured variable between two study populations. More specifically, the VR effect size…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-23 Alexander Volkmann