Related papers: A Comparative Analysis of Machine-learning Models …
This study explores the behavior of machine learning-based flare forecasting models deployed in a simulated operational environment. Using Georgia State University's Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares benchmark dataset (Angryk et al.…
Solar flares are caused by magnetic eruptions in active regions (ARs) on the surface of the sun. These events can have significant impacts on human activity, many of which can be mitigated with enough advance warning from good forecasts. To…
A deep learning network, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, is used in this work to predict whether the maximum flare class an active region (AR) will produce in the next 24 hours is class $\Gamma$. We considered $\Gamma$ are $\ge M$,…
Solar flares are intense eruptive events caused by the rapid release of magnetic energy, often impacting Earth's space environment through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Accurate flare prediction is critical for space…
We study the photospheric magnetic field of ~2000 active regions in solar cycle 23 to search for parameters indicative of energy build-up and subsequent release as a solar flare. We extract three sets of parameters: snapshots in space and…
This study focuses on forecasting major (>=M-class) solar flares that can severely impact the near-Earth environment. We construct two types of datasets using the Space Weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and develop a flare…
Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…
We consider the flare prediction problem that distinguishes flare-imminent active regions that produce an M- or X-class flare in the future 24 hours, from quiet active regions that do not produce any flare within $\pm 24$ hours. Using…
One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are…
Current operational forecasts of solar eruptions are made by human experts using a combination of qualitative shape-based classification systems and historical data about flaring frequencies. In the past decade, there has been a great deal…
We describe here the application of a machine learning method for flare forecasting using vectors of properties extracted from images provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager in the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI). We also…
Solar flare prediction is a central problem in space weather forecasting and recent developments in machine learning and deep learning accelerated the adoption of complex models for data-driven solar flare forecasting. In this work, we…
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause immediate and adverse effects on the interplanetary space and geospace. The deeper understanding of the mechanisms that produce them and the construction of efficient prediction schemes…
Flares are a well-studied aspect of the Sun's magnetic activity. Detecting and classifying solar flares can inform the analysis of contamination caused by stellar flares in exoplanet transmission spectra. In this paper, we present a…
We study the predictive capabilities of magnetic feature properties (MF) generated by Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART) for solar flare forecasting from two datasets: the full dataset of SMART detections from 1996 to 2010 that has…
Solar flares are events of intense scientific interest. Although certain solar conditions are known to be associated with flare activity, the exact location and timing of an individual flare on the Sun cannot as yet be predicted with…
A crucial challenge to successful flare prediction is forecasting periods that transition between "flare-quiet" and "flare-active". Building on earlier studies in this series (Barnes et al. 2016; Leka et al. 2019a,b) in which we describe…
Solar flares are the most explosive phenomena in the solar system and the main trigger of the events' chain that starts from Coronal Mass Ejections and leads to geomagnetic storms with possible impacts on the infrastructures at Earth.…
Machine learning models for forecasting solar flares have been trained and evaluated using a variety of data sources, including Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) operational and science-quality data. Typically, data from these sources…
High energy solar flares and coronal mass ejections have the potential to destroy Earth's ground and satellite infrastructures, causing trillions of dollars in damage and mass human suffering. Destruction of these critical systems would…