Related papers: Variational Heteroscedastic Volatility Model
We introduce a novel rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model featuring a variance-driven exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) time-dependent Hurst parameter $H_t$, fundamentally distinct from recent machine learning and wavelet-based…
We propose a Neural Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with Adaptive Granularity Attention (AGA) for high-frequency order flow modeling. The model addresses the challenge of capturing multi-scale temporal dynamics in financial markets, where…
With the introduction of the variational autoencoder (VAE), probabilistic latent variable models have received renewed attention as powerful generative models. However, their performance in terms of test likelihood and quality of generated…
We present a robust Deep Hedging framework for the pricing and hedging of option portfolios that significantly improves training efficiency and model robustness. In particular, we propose a neural model for training model embeddings which…
We address the video prediction task by putting forth a novel model that combines (i) a novel hierarchical residual learning vector quantized variational autoencoder (HR-VQVAE), and (ii) a novel autoregressive spatiotemporal predictive…
We apply machine learning models to forecast intraday realized volatility (RV), by exploiting commonality in intraday volatility via pooling stock data together, and by incorporating a proxy for the market volatility. Neural networks…
Large time series foundation models often adopt channel-independent architectures to handle varying data dimensions, but this design ignores crucial cross-channel dependencies. Concurrently, existing multimodal approaches have not fully…
We introduce a class of randomly time-changed fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility models and, using spectral theory and singular perturbation techniques, we derive an approximation for the prices of European options in this setting.…
In this paper we propose univariate volatility models for irregularly spaced financial time series by modifying the regularly spaced stochastic volatility models. We also extend this approach to propose multivariate stochastic volatility…
This paper introduces a novel approach to embed flow-based models with hierarchical structures. The proposed framework is named Variational Flow Graphical (VFG) Model. VFGs learn the representation of high dimensional data via a…
Rough volatility is a well-established statistical stylised fact of financial assets. This property has lead to the design and analysis of various new rough stochastic volatility models. However, most of these developments have been carried…
Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…
The R package stochvol provides a fully Bayesian implementation of heteroskedasticity modeling within the framework of stochastic volatility. It utilizes Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers to conduct inference by obtaining draws from…
The abundance of modern health data provides many opportunities for the use of machine learning techniques to build better statistical models to improve clinical decision making. Predicting time-to-event distributions, also known as…
Variational inference is an alternative estimation technique for Bayesian models. Recent work shows that variational methods provide consistent estimation via efficient, deterministic algorithms. Other tools, such as model selection using…
The aim of this work is to introduce a new stochastic volatility model for equity derivatives. To overcome some of the well-known problems of the Heston model, and more generally of the affine models, we define a new specification for the…
Multivariate time series forecasting, which analyzes historical time series to predict future trends, can effectively help decision-making. Complex relations among variables in MTS, including static, dynamic, predictable, and latent…
Individuals or companies in a large social or financial network often display rather heterogeneous behaviors for various reasons. In this work, we propose a network vector autoregressive model with a latent group structure to model…
A volatility surface is an important tool for pricing and hedging derivatives. The surface shows the volatility that is implied by the market price of an option on an asset as a function of the option's strike price and maturity. Often,…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…