Related papers: Variational Heteroscedastic Volatility Model
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…
Time-series is ubiquitous across applications, such as transportation, finance and healthcare. Time-series is often influenced by external factors, especially in the form of asynchronous events, making forecasting difficult. However,…
Agents' heterogeneity is recognized as a driver mechanism for the persistence of financial volatility. We focus on the multiplicity of investment strategies' horizons, we embed this concept in a continuous time stochastic volatility…
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) comprise a powerful generative approach for modeling sequential data and time-series in general. However, the commonly employed assumption of the dependence of the current time frame to a single or multiple…
Deep probabilistic time series forecasting models have become an integral part of machine learning. While several powerful generative models have been proposed, we provide evidence that their associated inference models are oftentimes too…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…
We propose a heterogeneous simultaneous graphical dynamic linear model (H-SGDLM), which extends the standard SGDLM framework to incorporate a heterogeneous autoregressive realised volatility (HAR-RV) model. This novel approach creates a…
This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model, which allows for dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
In this work we propose a heteroscedastic generalization to RVM, a fast Bayesian framework for regression, based on some recent similar works. We use variational approximation and expectation propagation to tackle the problem. The work is…
Dynamic networks are commonly used in applications where relational data is observed over time. Statistical models for such data should capture not only the temporal dependencies between networks observed in time, but also the structural…
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular deep latent variable model used to analyse high-dimensional datasets by learning a low-dimensional latent representation of the data. It simultaneously learns a generative model and an…
This work studies the problem of modeling visual processes by leveraging deep generative architectures for learning linear, Gaussian representations from observed sequences. We propose a joint learning framework, combining a vector…
Learning continuous-time stochastic dynamics is a fundamental and essential problem in modeling sporadic time series, whose observations are irregular and sparse in both time and dimension. For a given system whose latent states and…
We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…
Models for heteroskedastic data are relevant in a wide variety of applications ranging from financial time series to environmental statistics. However, the topic of modeling the variance function conditionally has not seen near as much…
Heteroscedastic regression models a Gaussian variable's mean and variance as a function of covariates. Parametric methods that employ neural networks for these parameter maps can capture complex relationships in the data. Yet, optimizing…
Variational continual learning (VCL) is a turn-key learning algorithm that has state-of-the-art performance among the best continual learning models. In our work, we explore an extension of the generalized variational continual learning…
Variational autoencoders (VAE) are powerful generative models that learn the latent representations of input data as random variables. Recent studies show that VAE can flexibly learn the complex temporal dynamics of time series and achieve…