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Response-adaptive designs allow the randomization probabilities to change during the course of a trial based on cumulated response data, so that a greater proportion of patients can be allocated to the better performing treatments. A major…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-03 David S. Robertson , James M. S. Wason

In most clinical trials, patients are randomized with equal probability among treatments to obtain an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect. Response-adaptive randomization (RAR) has been proposed for ethical reasons, where the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-16 Thevaa Chandereng , Rick Chappell

Response adaptive randomization (RAR) is appealing from methodological, ethical, and pragmatic perspectives in the sense that subjects are more likely to be randomized to better performing treatment groups based on accumulating data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Tianyu Zhan , Lu Cui , Ziqian Geng , Lanju Zhang , Yihua Gu , Ivan S. F. Chan

We introduce a new multiple type I error criterion for clinical trials with multiple populations. Such trials are of interest in precision medicine where the goal is to develop treatments that are targeted to specific sub-populations…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-05 Werner Brannath , Charlie Hillner , Kornelius Rohmeyer

It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Samuel D. Pimentel , Yaxuan Huang

Primarily motivated by the drug development process, several publications have now presented methodology for the design of multi-arm multi-stage experiments with normally distributed outcome variables of known variance. Here, we extend…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-04 Michael Grayling , James Wason , Adrian Mander

A new approach to adaptive design of clinical trials is proposed in a general multiparameter exponential family setting, based on generalized likelihood ratio statistics and optimal sequential testing theory. These designs are easy to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-25 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

Response-adaptive clinical trial designs allow targeting a given objective by skewing the allocation of participants to treatments based on observed outcomes. Response-adaptive designs face greater regulatory scrutiny due to potential type…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-19 Stef Baas , Peter Jacko , Sofía S. Villar

The treatment assignment mechanism in a randomized clinical trial can be optimized for statistical efficiency within a specified class of randomization mechanisms. Optimal designs of this type have been characterized in terms of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Wei Zhang , Zhiwei Zhang , Aiyi Liu

We consider clinical trials with multiple, overlapping patient populations, that test multiple treatment policies specifically tailored to these populations. Such designs may lead to multiplicity issues, as false statements will affect…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-13 Remi Luschei , Werner Brannath

In recent years, real-world external controls have grown in popularity as a tool to empower randomized placebo-controlled trials, particularly in rare diseases or cases where balanced randomization is unethical or impractical. However, as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-14 Chenyin Gao , Shu Yang , Mingyang Shan , Wenyu Ye , Ilya Lipkovich , Douglas Faries

Response-adaptive randomization has recently attracted a lot of attention in the literature. In this paper, we propose a new and simple family of response-adaptive randomization procedures that attain the Cramer--Rao lower bounds on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-25 Feifang Hu , Li-Xin Zhang , Xuming He

Recent FDA guidance on adaptive clinical trial designs defines bias as "a systematic tendency for the estimate of treatment effect to deviate from its true value", and states that it is desirable to obtain and report estimates of treatment…

Maximizing statistical power in experimental design often involves imbalanced treatment allocation, but several challenges hinder its practical adoption: (1) the misconception that equal allocation always maximizes power, (2) when only…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Stef Baas , Lukas Pin , Sofía S. Villar , William F. Rosenberger

In clinical trials, there is potential to improve precision and reduce the required sample size by appropriately adjusting for baseline variables in the statistical analysis. This is called covariate adjustment. Despite recommendations by…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Kelly Van Lancker , Joshua Betz , Michael Rosenblum

External controls from historical trials or observational data can augment randomized controlled trials when large-scale randomization is impractical or unethical, such as in drug evaluation for rare diseases. However, non-randomized…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-08 Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

Practical employment of Bayesian trial designs is still rare. Even if accepted in principle, the regulators have commonly required that such designs be calibrated according to an upper bound for the frequentist type I error rate. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Elja Arjas , Dario Gasbarra

This work revisits optimal response-adaptive designs from a type-I error rate perspective, highlighting when and how much these allocations exacerbate type-I error rate inflation - an issue previously undocumented. We explore a range of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Lukas Pin , Sofía S. Villar , William F. Rosenberger

In conventional randomized controlled trials, adjustment for baseline values of covariates known to be at least moderately associated with the outcome increases the power of the trial. Recent work has shown particular benefit for more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 James Willard , Shirin Golchi , Erica EM Moodie

Response-adaptive randomisation (RAR) can considerably improve the chances of a successful treatment outcome for patients in a clinical trial by skewing the allocation probability towards better performing treatments as data accumulates.…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-14 Sofia S. Villar , Jack Bowden , James Wason
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