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Related papers: Normalized Power Prior Bayesian Analysis

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Power priors are used for incorporating historical data in Bayesian analyses by taking the likelihood of the historical data raised to the power $\alpha$ as the prior distribution for the model parameters. The power parameter $\alpha$ is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

The power prior and its variations have been proven to be a useful class of informative priors in Bayesian inference due to their flexibility in incorporating the historical information by raising the likelihood of the historical data to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-14 Zifei Han , Keying Ye , Min Wang

The power prior is a class of informative priors designed to incorporate historical data alongside current data in a Bayesian framework. It includes a power parameter that controls the influence of historical data, providing flexibility and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Masanari Kimura , Howard Bondell

The power prior is a popular tool for constructing informative prior distributions based on historical data. The method consists of raising the likelihood to a discounting factor in order to control the amount of information borrowed from…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-29 Luiz Max Carvalho , Joseph G. Ibrahim

The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

The power prior is a popular class of informative priors for incorporating information from historical data. It involves raising the likelihood for the historical data to a power, which acts as discounting parameter. When the discounting…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-09 Yueqi Shen , Luiz M. Carvalho , Matthew A. Psioda , Joseph G. Ibrahim

In the Bayesian framework power prior distributions are increasingly adopted in clinical trials and similar studies to incorporate external and past information, typically to inform the parameter associated to a treatment effect. Their use…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Roberto Macrì Demartino , Leonardo Egidi , Nicola Torelli , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Determining the sensitivity of the posterior to perturbations of the prior and likelihood is an important part of the Bayesian workflow. We introduce a practical and computationally efficient sensitivity analysis approach using importance…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-05 Noa Kallioinen , Topi Paananen , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Aki Vehtari

We propose a frequentist testing procedure that maintains a defined coverage and is optimal in the sense that it gives maximal power to detect deviations from a null hypothesis when the alternative to the null hypothesis is sampled from a…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-07 Christian Bartels , Johanna Mielke , Ekkehard Glimm

The statistical evidence (or marginal likelihood) is a key quantity in Bayesian statistics, allowing one to assess the probability of the data given the model under investigation. This paper focuses on refining the power posterior approach…

Computation · Statistics 2013-06-14 Nial Friel , Merrilee Hurn , Jason Wyse

Use of historical control data to augment a small internal control arm in a randomized control trial (RCT) can lead to significant improvement of the efficiency of the trial. It introduces the risk of potential bias, since the historical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-05 Jixian Wang , Hongtao Zhang , Ram Tiwari

We propose a score-based generative algorithm for sampling from power-scaled priors and likelihoods within the Bayesian inference framework. Our algorithm enables flexible control over prior-likelihood influence without requiring retraining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Huseyin Tuna Erdinc , Yunlin Zeng , Abhinav Prakash Gahlot , Felix J. Herrmann

The power prior is a popular class of informative priors for incorporating information from historical data. It involves raising the likelihood for the historical data to a power, which acts as a discounting parameter. When the discounting…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Yueqi Shen , Matthew A. Psioda , Luiz M. Carvalho , Joseph G. Ibrahim

Bayesian analyses are often performed using so-called noninformative priors, with a view to achieving objective inference about unknown parameters on which available data depends. Noninformative priors depend on the relationship of the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-14 Nicholas Lewis

Bayesian approaches to data analysis and machine learning are widespread and popular as they provide intuitive yet rigorous axioms for learning from data; see Bernardo and Smith (2004) and Bishop (2006). However, this rigour comes with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-31 Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker

The R package BayesPPD (Bayesian Power Prior Design) supports Bayesian power and type I error calculation and model fitting after incorporating historical data with the power prior and the normalized power prior for generalized linear…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-30 Yueqi Shen , Matthew A. Psioda , Joseph G. Ibrahim

The BayesPPDSurv (Bayesian Power Prior Design for Survival Data) R package supports Bayesian power and type I error calculations and model fitting using the power and normalized power priors incorporating historical data with for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-09 Yueqi Shen , Matthew A. Psioda , Joseph G. Ibrahim

We consider the fractional posterior distribution that is obtained by updating a prior distribution via Bayes theorem with a fractional likelihood function, a usual likelihood function raised to a fractional power. First, we analyze the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-08 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati , Yun Yang

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-10-05 Jakob Robnik , Uroš Seljak

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Cheng Zeng , Eleni Dilma , Jason Xu , Leo L Duan
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