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Differential equations based on physical principals are used to represent complex dynamic systems in all fields of science and engineering. Through repeated use in both academics and industry, these equations have been shown to represent…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-08 Joshua S. North , Christopher K. Wikle , Erin M. Schliep

Differential equations (DEs) are commonly used to describe dynamic systems evolving in one (ordinary differential equations or ODEs) or in more than one dimensions (partial differential equations or PDEs). In real data applications the…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-25 Gianluca Frasso , Jonathan Jaeger , Philippe Lambert

We explore probability modelling of discretization uncertainty for system states defined implicitly by ordinary or partial differential equations. Accounting for this uncertainty can avoid posterior under-coverage when likelihoods are…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Oksana A. Chkrebtii , David A. Campbell , Ben Calderhead , Mark A. Girolami

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Marco Forgione , Dario Piga

Predicting the response of nonlinear dynamical systems subject to random, broadband excitation is important across a range of scientific disciplines, such as structural dynamics and neuroscience. Building data-driven models requires…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Joseph Massingham , Ole Nielsen , Tore Butlin

Bioprocess mechanistic modeling is essential for advancing intelligent digital twin representation of biomanufacturing, yet challenges persist due to complex intracellular regulation, stochastic system behavior, and limited experimental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Keilung Choy , Wei Xie , Keqi Wang

Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2023-09-27 Natalie M. Isenberg , Susan D. Mertins , Byung-Jun Yoon , Kristofer Reyes , Nathan M. Urban

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations, and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-27 Michael J. Plank , Matthew J. Simpson

Bayesian analysis is a framework for parameter estimation that applies even in uncertainty regimes where the commonly used local (frequentist) analysis based on the Cram\'er-Rao bound is not well defined. In particular, it applies when no…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-03-17 Simon Morelli , Ayaka Usui , Elizabeth Agudelo , Nicolai Friis

Many quantum technologies rely on high-precision dynamics, which raises the question of how these are influenced by the experimental uncertainties that are always present in real-life settings. A standard approach in the literature to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-04-27 Mogens Dalgaard , Carrie A. Weidner , Felix Motzoi

Biophysical models describing complex, cellular phenomena typically include systems of nonlinear differential equations with many free parameters. While experimental measurements can fix some parameters, those describing internal cellular…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-07-08 Joseph M. Marcinik , Martín A. Toderi , Dolores Bozovic

In this study, we introduce a sensitivity analysis methodology for stochastic systems in chemistry, where dynamics are often governed by random processes. Our approach is based on gradient estimation via finite differences, averaging…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-12 Erika M. Herrera Machado , Jakob L. Andersen , Rolf Fagerberg , Daniel Merkle

In many biological processes heterogeneity within cell populations is an important issue. In this work we consider populations where the behavior of every single cell can be described by a system of ordinary differential equations.…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2010-02-25 J. Hasenauer , S. Waldherr , M. Doszczak , P. Scheurich , F. Allgower

To support and guide an extensive experimental research into systems biology of signaling pathways, increasingly more mechanistic models are being developed with hopes of gaining further insight into biological processes. In order to…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2009-05-28 Tina Toni , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Dynamic models of biochemical networks typically consist of sets of non-linear ordinary differential equations involving states (concentrations or amounts of the components of the network) and parameters describing the reaction kinetics.…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2014-03-07 Oana-Teodora Chis , Julio R. Banga , Eva Balsa-Canto

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

Accurate prediction of dynamical response of structural system depends on the correct modeling of that system. However, modeling becomes increasingly challenging when there are many candidate models available to describe the system…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-06 Subhayan De , Tianhao Yu , Patrick T. Brewick , Erik A. Johnson , Steven F. Wojtkiewicz

Analysis and synthesis of safety-critical autonomous systems are carried out using models which are often dynamic. Two central features of these dynamic systems are parameters and unmodeled dynamics. This paper addresses the use of a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-17 Arnab Sarker , Peter Fisher , Joseph E. Gaudio , Anuradha M. Annaswamy

In a statistical analysis in Particle Physics, nuisance parameters can be introduced to take into account various types of systematic uncertainties. The best estimate of such a parameter is often modeled as a Gaussian distributed variable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-02-25 Glen Cowan

We compare the accuracy, precision and reliability of different methods for estimating key system parameters for two-level systems subject to Hamiltonian evolution and decoherence. It is demonstrated that the use of Bayesian modelling and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-10-15 Sophie Schirmer , Frank Langbein