Related papers: A proper scoring rule for minimum information copu…
We tackle the natural question of whether it is possible to estimate conditional distributions via Sklar's theorem by separately estimating the conditional distributions of the underlying copula and the marginals. Working with so-called…
In Simulation-based Inference, the goal is to solve the inverse problem when the likelihood is only known implicitly. Neural Posterior Estimation commonly fits a normalized density estimator as a surrogate model for the posterior. This…
The non-parametric version of Amari's dually affine Information Geometry provides a practical calculus to perform computations of interest in statistical machine learning. The method uses the notion of a statistical bundle, a mathematical…
Optimum designs for parameter estimation in generalized regression models are standardly based on the Fisher information matrix (cf. Atkinson et al (2014) for a recent exposition). The corresponding optimality criteria are related to the…
We consider the problem of estimating probability density functions based on sample data, using a finite mixture of densities from some component class. To this end, we introduce the $h$-lifted Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence as a…
In binary classification tasks, accurate representation of probabilistic predictions is essential for various real-world applications such as predicting payment defaults or assessing medical risks. The model must then be well-calibrated to…
The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is a fundamental equation of information theory that quantifies the proximity of two probability distributions. Although difficult to understand by examining the equation, an intuition and understanding…
This paper lays out a principled approach to compare copula forecasts via strictly consistent scores. We first establish the negative result that, in general, copulas fail to be elicitable, implying that copula predictions cannot sensibly…
In a first part, we present a mathematical analysis of a general methodology of a probabilistic learning inference that allows for estimating a posterior probability model for a stochastic boundary value problem from a prior probability…
Statistical modelling of covariate distributions allows to generate virtual populations or to impute missing values in a covariate dataset. Covariate distributions typically have non-Gaussian margins and show nonlinear correlation…
This paper deals with the taking into account a given set of realizations as constraints in the Kullback-Leibler minimum principle, which is used as a probabilistic learning algorithm. This permits the effective integration of data into…
Quantitative studies in many fields involve the analysis of multivariate data of diverse types, including measurements that we may consider binary, ordinal and continuous. One approach to the analysis of such mixed data is to use a copula…
Meta-analytic methods tend to take all-or-nothing approaches to study-level heterogeneity, assuming all studies are heterogeneous or homogeneous, leading to inefficiency and/or bias in estimation and inference. In this paper, we develop a…
To characterize the Kullback-Leibler divergence and Fisher information in general parametrized hidden Markov models, in this paper, we first show that the log likelihood and its derivatives can be represented as an additive functional of a…
The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is a foundational measure for comparing probability distributions. Yet in multivariate settings, its single value often obscures the underlying reasons for divergence, conflating mismatches in individual…
The problem of estimating the Kullback-Leibler divergence $D(P\|Q)$ between two unknown distributions $P$ and $Q$ is studied, under the assumption that the alphabet size $k$ of the distributions can scale to infinity. The estimation is…
In conditional copula models, the copula parameter is deterministically linked to a covariate via the calibration function. The latter is of central interest for inference and is usually estimated nonparametrically. However, when a…
Estimating the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between two distributions given samples from them is well-studied in machine learning and information theory. Motivated by considerations of multi-group fairness, we seek KL divergence…
We show that the Kullback-Leibler distance is a good measure of the statistical uncertainty of correlation matrices estimated by using a finite set of data. For correlation matrices of multivariate Gaussian variables we analytically…
In this paper we study algorithms to find a Gaussian approximation to a target measure defined on a Hilbert space of functions; the target measure itself is defined via its density with respect to a reference Gaussian measure. We employ the…