Related papers: Markov cohort state-transition model: A multinomia…

Forecasting tasks using large datasets gathering thousands of heterogeneous time series is a crucial statistical problem in numerous sectors. The main challenge is to model a rich variety of time series, leverage any available external…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been progressively incorporated within the statistician's toolbox as an alternative sampling method in settings when standard Metropolis-Hastings is inefficient. HMC generates a Markov chain on an augmented…

Multistate models (MSM) are well developed for continuous and discrete times under a first order Markov assumption. Motivated by a cohort of COVID-19 patients, an MSM was designed based on 14 transitions among 7 states of a patient. Since a…

In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target…

This paper considers the problem of remote state estimation for Markov jump linear systems in the presence of uncertainty in the posterior mode probabilities. Such uncertainty may arise when the estimator receives noisy or incomplete…

In most sampling algorithms, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, transition rates between states correspond to the probability of making a transition in a single time step, and are constrained to be less than or equal to 1. We derive a…

This paper consider a highly general dissemination model that keeps track of the stochastic evolution of the distribution of wealth over a set of agents. There are two types of events: (i) units of wealth externally arrive, and (ii) units…

In this paper, we introduce a variant of hidden Markov models in which the transition probabilities between the states, as well as the emission distributions, are not constant in time but vary in a periodic manner. This class of models,…

Multi-state survival analysis considers several potential events of interest along a disease pathway. Such analyses are crucial to model complex patient trajectories and are increasingly being used in epidemiological and health economic…

This paper considers a simulation-based estimator for a general class of Markovian processes and explores some strong consistency properties of the estimator. The estimation problem is defined over a continuum of invariant distributions…

Although the notion of diagnostic problem has been extensively investigated in the context of static systems, in most practical applications the behavior of the modeled system is significantly variable during time. The goal of the paper is…

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are sampling methods that have become a commonly used tool in statistics, for example to perform Monte Carlo integration. As a consequence of the increase in computational power, many variations of…

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

Non-Markovian models have great expressive power, at the cost of complex analysis of the stochastic process. The method of Stochastic State Classes (SSCs) derives closed-form analytical expressions for the joint Probability Density…

We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state…

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

A non trivial problem that arises in several applications is the estimation of the mean of a truncated normal distribution. In this paper, an iterative deterministic scheme for approximating this mean is proposed. It has been inspired from…

We introduce a probabilistic framework for two-sample comparison based on a nonparametric process taking the form of a Markov model that transitions between a "divide" and a "merge" state on a multi-resolution partition tree of the sample…

This paper shows a novel way of simulating a Markov process by a quantum computer. The main purpose of the paper is to show a particular application of quantum computing in the field of stochastic processes analysis. Using a Quantum…

Dynamic and evolving operational and economic environments present significant challenges for decision-making. We explore a simulation optimization problem characterized by non-stationary input distributions with regime-switching dynamics…