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This paper proposes a new uncertainty measure, appropriate for quantifying the performance of transport models in assessing the origin or source of a given observation. It is found that in a neighbourhood of the observation the proposed…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-29 Guillermo Garcia-Sanchez , Ana Maria Mancho , Makrina Agaoglou , Stephen Wiggins

Predictive uncertainty quantification is crucial in decision-making problems. We investigate how to adequately quantify predictive uncertainty with missing covariates. A bottleneck is that missing values induce heteroskedasticity on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-27 Margaux Zaffran , Julie Josse , Yaniv Romano , Aymeric Dieuleveut

In computational materials science, mechanical properties are typically extracted from simulations by means of analysis routines that seek to mimic their experimental counterparts. However, simulated data often exhibit uncertainties that…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-12-07 Paul N. Patrone , Anthony J. Kearsley , Andrew M. Dienstfrey

Feedback control actively dissipates uncertainty from a dynamical system by means of actuation. We develop a notion of "control capacity" that gives a fundamental limit (in bits) on the rate at which a controller can dissipate the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-01-17 Gireeja Ranade , Anant Sahai

This paper presents a new robust data-driven predictive control scheme for unknown linear time-invariant systems by using input-state-output or input-output data based on whether the state is measurable. To remove the need for the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-01-17 Kaijian Hu , Tao Liu

The $\nu$-metric used in robust control is computed for control systems with parametric uncertainty, governed by a diffusion equation in a bounded one-dimensional spatial region with boundary control and point observation.

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-12-15 Amol Sasane

We develop a data-driven approach for runtime safety monitoring in flight testing, where pilots perform maneuvers on aircraft with uncertain parameters. Because safety violations can arise unexpectedly as a result of these uncertainties,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Aaron O. Feldman , D. Isaiah Harp , Joseph Duncan , Mac Schwager

Statistical modeling can involve a tension between assumptions and statistical identification. The law of the observable data may not uniquely determine the value of a target parameter without invoking a key assumption, and, while…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Paul Gustafson

Achieving rapid and time-deterministic stabilization for complex systems characterized by strong nonlinearities and parametric uncertainties presents a significant challenge. Traditional model-based control relies on precise system models,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-07-04 Yue Wu

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

In this paper, a new yet indirect performance guaranteed framework is established to address the distributed tracking control problem for networked uncertain nonlinear strict-feedback systems with unknown time-varying gains under a directed…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-13 Zeqiang Li , Yujuan Wang , Xiucai Huang

We present a method for providing statistical guarantees on runtime safety and goal reachability for integrated planning and control of a class of systems with unknown nonlinear stochastic underactuated dynamics. Specifically, given a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Craig Knuth , Glen Chou , Jamie Reese , Joe Moore

In this paper, we present a unified framework for decision making under uncertainty. Our framework is based on the composite of two risk measures, where the inner risk measure accounts for the risk of decision given the exact distribution…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-01-07 Pengyu Qian , Zizhuo Wang , Zaiwen Wen

To achieve virtual certification for industrial design, quantifying the uncertainties in simulation-driven processes is crucial. We discuss a physics-constrained approach to account for epistemic uncertainty of turbulence models. In order…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-12 Marcel Matha , Christian Morsbach

The uncertainty principle limits quantum states such that when one observable takes predictable values there must be some other mutually unbiased observables which take uniformly random values. We show that this restrictive condition plays…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-08-12 Oscar C. O. Dahlsten , Andrew J. P. Garner , Vlatko Vedral

Modelling of contact-rich tasks is challenging and cannot be entirely solved using classical control approaches due to the difficulty of constructing an analytic description of the contact dynamics. Additionally, in a manipulation task like…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-09-27 Ioanna Mitsioni , Yiannis Karayiannidis , Johannes A. Stork , Danica Kragic

Probabilistic graphical models are a fundamental tool in probabilistic modeling, machine learning and artificial intelligence. They allow us to integrate in a natural way expert knowledge, physical modeling, heterogeneous and correlated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-20 Panagiota Birmpa , Jinchao Feng , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Luc Rey-Bellet

Here, we investigate the uncertainty of dynamical observables in classical systems manipulated by repeated measurements and feedback control; the precision should be enhanced in the presence of an external controller but limited by the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-01-23 Tan Van Vu , Yoshihiko Hasegawa

Diversity of environments is a key challenge that causes learned robotic controllers to fail due to the discrepancies between the training and evaluation conditions. Training from demonstrations in various conditions can mitigate---but not…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-03-15 Sanjay Thakur , Herke van Hoof , Juan Camilo Gamboa Higuera , Doina Precup , David Meger

Uncertainty in control and perception poses challenges for autonomous vehicle navigation in unstructured environments, leading to navigation failures and potential vehicle damage. This paper introduces a framework that minimizes control and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Junwon Seo , Jungwi Mun , Taekyung Kim