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Artificial neural networks have been successfully applied to a variety of machine learning tasks, including image recognition, semantic segmentation, and machine translation. However, few studies fully investigated ensembles of artificial…

The problem of nowcasting extreme weather events can be addressed by applying either numerical methods for the solution of dynamic model equations or data-driven artificial intelligence algorithms. Within this latter framework, the present…

Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…

Extreme events are the major weather-related hazard for humanity. It is then of crucial importance to have a good understanding of their statistics and to be able to forecast them. However, lack of sufficient data makes their study…

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) is a methodology to identify experiments that are expected to yield informative data. Recent work in cognitive science considered BOED for computational models of human behavior with tractable and…

In many real-world AD applications including computer security and fraud prevention, the anomaly detector must be configurable by the human analyst to minimize the effort on false positives. One important way to configure the detector is by…

The study of geometric extremes, where extremal dependence properties are inferred from the deterministic limiting shapes of scaled sample clouds, provides an exciting approach to modelling the extremes of multivariate data. These shapes,…

Anomaly detection is an important task for complex systems (e.g., industrial facilities, manufacturing, large-scale science experiments), where failures in a sub-system can lead to low yield, faulty products, or even damage to components.…

Promising results have driven a recent surge of interest in continuous optimization methods for Bayesian network structure learning from observational data. However, there are theoretical limitations on the identifiability of underlying…

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Complex design problems are common in the scientific and industrial fields. In practice, objective functions or constraints of these problems often do not have explicit formulas, and can be estimated only at a set of sampling points through…

The optimal selection of experimental conditions is essential to maximizing the value of data for inference and prediction, particularly in situations where experiments are time-consuming and expensive to conduct. We propose a general…

Accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification (UQ) are essential for decision-making in risk-sensitive fields such as system safety modeling. Deep ensembles (DEs) are efficient and scalable methods for UQ in Deep Neural Networks…

With changing climatic conditions, we are already seeing an increase in extreme weather events and their secondary consequences, including landslides. Landslides threaten infrastructure, including roads, railways, buildings, and human life.…

Active learning frameworks offer efficient data annotation without remarkable accuracy degradation. In other words, active learning starts training the model with a small size of labeled data while exploring the space of unlabeled data in…

Detecting events and classifying them into predefined types is an important step in knowledge extraction from natural language texts. While the neural network models have generally led the state-of-the-art, the differences in performance…

Methods for unsupervised anomaly detection suffer from the fact that the data is unlabeled, making it difficult to assess the optimality of detection algorithms. Ensemble learning has shown exceptional results in classification and…

Anomaly detection is a ubiquitous and challenging task relevant across many disciplines. With the vital role communication networks play in our daily lives, the security of these networks is imperative for smooth functioning of society. To…

Video Anomaly Detection (VAD) can play a key role in spotting unusual activities in video footage. VAD is difficult to use in real-world settings due to the dynamic nature of human actions, environmental variations, and domain shifts.…

In a changing climate, artificial intelligence (AI) weather models have the potential to provide cheaper, faster, and more accurate forecasts of high-impact weather events. To realize this potential and gauge trustworthiness, there is a…