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We study the dependence structure of market states by estimating empirical pairwise copulas of daily stock returns. We consider both original returns, which exhibit time-varying trends and volatilities, as well as locally normalized ones,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-09-30 Desislava Chetalova , Marcel Wollschläger , Rudi Schäfer

In this paper, we derive copula-based and empirical dependency models (DMs) for simulating non-independent variables, and then propose a new way for determining the distribution of the model outputs conditional on every subset of inputs.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-12 Matieyendou Lamboni

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing independence in high-dimensional settings with missing data. Building upon a recently proposed Kendall-based statistic, we introduce two new modifications specifically designed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Marija Cuparić , Bojana Milošević , Jelena Radojević

Risk evaluation is a forecast, and its validity must be backtested. Probability distribution forecasts are used in this work and allow for more powerful validations compared to point forecasts. Our aim is to use bivariate copulas in order…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-21 Boris David , Gilles Zumbach

We propose a new copula model for replicated multivariate spatial data. Unlike classical models that assume multivariate normality of the data, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that some factors exist that affect the joint…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-12 Pavel Krupskii , Marc G. Genton

Considering multivariate strongly mixing time series, nonparametric tests for a constant copula with specified or unspecified change point (candidate) are derived; the tests are consistent against general alternatives. A tapered block…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-11 Axel Bücher , Martin Ruppert

We propose pair copula constructed point-optimal sign tests in the context of linear and nonlinear predictive regressions with endogenous, persistent regressors, and disturbances exhibiting serial (nonlinear) dependence. The proposed…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-11-10 Kaveh Salehzadeh Nobari

We consider testing marginal independence versus conditional independence in a trivariate Gaussian setting. The two models are non-nested and their intersection is a union of two marginal independences. We consider two sequences of such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-23 F. Richard Guo , Thomas S. Richardson

This study demonstrates the existence of a testable condition for the identification of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome in observational data, which relies on two sets of variables: observed covariates to be controlled for…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-20 Martin Huber , Jannis Kueck

Statistical independence and conditional independence are two fundamental concepts in statistics and machine learning. Copula Entropy is a mathematical concept defined by Ma and Sun for multivariate statistical independence measuring and…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-30 Jian Ma

Vine copulas are a useful statistical tool to describe the dependence structure between several random variables, especially when the number of variables is very large. When modeling data with vine copulas, one often is confronted with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-10 Matthias Killiches , Daniel Kraus , Claudia Czado

Testing mutual independence among multiple random variables is a fundamental problem in statistics, with wide applications in genomics, finance, and neuroscience. In this paper, we propose a new class of tests for high-dimensional mutual…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-28 Ping Zhao , Huifang Ma

Testing copula hypothesis is of fundamental importance in the applications of copula theory. In this paper we proposed a copula hypothesis testing with copula entropy. Since copula entropy is a unified theory in probability and therefore…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-28 Jian Ma

An approach is proposed to determine structural shift in time-series assuming non-linear dependence of lagged values of dependent variable. Copulas are used to model non-linear dependence of time series components.

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-19 Henry Penikas

Copulas are a powerful tool to model dependence between the components of a random vector. One well-known class of copulas when working in two dimensions is the Farlie-GumbelMorgenstern (FGM) copula since their simple analytic shape enables…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-24 Christopher Blier-Wong , Hélène Cossette , Etienne Marceau

Test of independence is of fundamental importance in modern data analysis, with broad applications in variable selection, graphical models, and causal inference. When the data is high dimensional and the potential dependence signal is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-13 Zhanrui Cai , Jing Lei , Kathryn Roeder

This article presents factor copula approaches to model temporal dependency of non-Gaussian (continuous/discrete) longitudinal data. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas which explain the underlying dependence structure of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Subhajit Chattopadhyay

This paper introduces an innovative method for conducting conditional independence testing in high-dimensional data, facilitating the automated discovery of significant associations within distinct subgroups of a population, all while…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Matteo Sesia , Tianshu Sun

Several collective risk models have recently been proposed by relaxing the widely used but controversial assumption of independence between claim frequency and severity. Approaches include the bivariate copula model, random effect model,…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-11 Rosy Oh , Jae Youn Ahn , Woojoo Lee

For multivariate distributions in the domain of attraction of a max-stable distribution, the tail copula and the stable tail dependence function are equivalent ways to capture the dependence in the upper tail. The empirical versions of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-09 John H. J. Einmahl , Johan Segers