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When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-18 Richard Harang , Ethan M. Rudd

This study aims to improve the spatial representation of uncertainties when regressing surface wind speeds from large-scale atmospheric predictors for sub-seasonal forecasting. Sub-seasonal forecasting often relies on large-scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Ganglin Tian , Anastase Alexandre Charantonis , Camille Le Coz , Alexis Tantet , Riwal Plougonven

Modeling complex spatiotemporal dependencies in correlated traffic series is essential for traffic prediction. While recent works have shown improved prediction performance by using neural networks to extract spatiotemporal correlations,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-08 Junpeng Lin , Ziyue Li , Zhishuai Li , Lei Bai , Rui Zhao , Chen Zhang

Deep neural networks are powerful predictors for a variety of tasks. However, they do not capture uncertainty directly. Using neural network ensembles to quantify uncertainty is competitive with approaches based on Bayesian neural networks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Romain Egele , Romit Maulik , Krishnan Raghavan , Bethany Lusch , Isabelle Guyon , Prasanna Balaprakash

Image reconstruction methods based on deep neural networks have shown outstanding performance, equalling or exceeding the state-of-the-art results of conventional approaches, but often do not provide uncertainty information about the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Riccardo Barbano , Željko Kereta , Chen Zhang , Andreas Hauptmann , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Peter Grönquist , Tal Ben-Nun , Nikoli Dryden , Peter Dueben , Luca Lavarini , Shigang Li , Torsten Hoefler

Spatiotemporal prediction plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications such as urban planning, transportation optimization, disaster response, and pandemic control. In recent years, researchers have made significant progress by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Dahai Yu , Dingyi Zhuang , Lin Jiang , Rongchao Xu , Xinyue Ye , Yuheng Bu , Shenhao Wang , Guang Wang

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

This paper presents two novel approaches for uncertainty estimation adapted and extended for the multi-link bus travel time problem. The uncertainty is modeled directly as part of recurrent artificial neural networks, but using two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-15 Niklas Christoffer Petersen , Anders Parslov , Filipe Rodrigues

Recent work has focused on data-driven learning of the evolution of unknown systems via deep neural networks (DNNs), with the goal of conducting long time prediction of the evolution of the unknown system. Training a DNN with low…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-28 Victor Churchill , Steve Manns , Zhen Chen , Dongbin Xiu

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , Zi Lin , Shreyas Padhy , Dustin Tran , Tania Bedrax-Weiss , Balaji Lakshminarayanan

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-01 Agustinus Kristiadi , Sina Däubener , Asja Fischer

Traffic prediction is a critical component of intelligent transportation systems, enabling applications such as congestion mitigation and accident risk prediction. While recent research has explored both graph-based and grid-based…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Hyeonseok Jin , Geonmin Kim , Kyungbaek Kim

Deep neural networks offer numerous potential applications across geoscience, for example, one could argue that they are the state-of-the-art method for predicting faults in seismic datasets. In quantitative reservoir characterization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-26 Lukas Mosser , Ehsan Zabihi Naeini

Recent advances in reconstruction methods for inverse problems leverage powerful data-driven models, e.g., deep neural networks. These techniques have demonstrated state-of-the-art performances for several imaging tasks, but they often do…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Riccardo Barbano , Chen Zhang , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful tools for various computer vision tasks, yet they often struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification - a critical requirement for real-world applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Gianni Franchi , Olivier Laurent , Maxence Leguéry , Andrei Bursuc , Andrea Pilzer , Angela Yao

A rise in popularity of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), attributed to more powerful GPUs and widely available datasets, has seen them being increasingly used within safety-critical domains. One such domain, self-driving, has benefited from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-19 Rhiannon Michelmore , Marta Kwiatkowska , Yarin Gal

Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical in multivariate time series forecasting problems arising in domains such as energy systems and transportation networks, among many others. Although Transformer-based architectures have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Rajdeep Pathak , Rahul Goswami , Madhurima Panja , Palash Ghosh , Tanujit Chakraborty