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Related papers: Stochastic filtering under model ambiguity

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According to conventional wisdom, ambiguity accelerates optimal timing by decreasing the value of waiting in comparison with the unambiguous benchmark case. We study this mechanism in a multidimensional setting and show that in a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-15 Sören Christensen , Luis H. R. Alvarez E

We study how to safely control nonlinear control-affine systems that are corrupted with bounded non-stochastic noise, i.e., noise that is unknown a priori and that is not necessarily governed by a stochastic model. We focus on safety…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-12-11 Hongyu Zhou , Yichen Song , Vasileios Tzoumas

Can stochastic gradient methods track a moving target? We study the problem of tracking multidimensional time-varying parameters under noisy observations and possible model misspecification. Gradient-based filters update the time-varying…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Simon Donker van Heel , Rutger-Jan Lange , Bram van Os , Dick van Dijk

A learning-based safety filter is developed for discrete-time linear time-invariant systems with unknown models subject to Gaussian noises with unknown covariance. Safety is characterized using polytopic constraints on the states and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Farhad Farokhi , Alex S. Leong , Mohammad Zamani , Iman Shames

In this paper, we study the problem of estimating a Markov chain $X$(signal) from its noisy partial information $Y$, when the transition probability kernel depends on some unknown parameters. Our goal is to compute the conditional…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Anastasia Papavasiliou

Existing approaches to model uncertainty typically either compare models using a quantitative model selection criterion or evaluate posterior model probabilities having set a prior. In this paper, we propose an alternative strategy which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-26 Vik Shirvaikar , Stephen G. Walker , Chris Holmes

We consider statistical Markov Decision Processes where the decision maker is risk averse against model ambiguity. The latter is given by an unknown parameter which influences the transition law and the cost functions. Risk aversion is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Nicole Bäuerle , Ulrich Rieder

Deploying machine learning models in safety-critical domains poses a key challenge: ensuring reliable model performance on downstream user data without access to ground truth labels for direct validation. We propose the suitability filter,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Angéline Pouget , Mohammad Yaghini , Stephan Rabanser , Nicolas Papernot

The problem of the optimal allocation (in the expected mean square error sense) of a measurement budget for particle filtering is addressed. We propose three different optimal intermittent filters, whose optimality criteria depend on the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-06-29 Antoine Aspeel , Amaury Gouverneur , Raphaël M. Jungers , Benoit Macq

Chance constraints are frequently used to limit the probability of constraint violations in real-world optimization problems where the constraints involve stochastic components. We study chance-constrained submodular optimization problems,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-27 Xiankun Yan , Anh Viet Do , Feng Shi , Xiaoyu Qin , Frank Neumann

The choice of free parameters in network models is subjective, since it depends on what topological properties are being monitored. However, we show that the Maximum Likelihood (ML) principle indicates a unique, statistically rigorous…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-08-07 Diego Garlaschelli , Maria I. Loffredo

This paper develops a connection between the asymptotic stability of nonlinear filters and a notion of observability. We consider a general class of hidden Markov models in continuous time with compact signal state space, and call such a…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-15 Ramon van Handel

Ambiguity is inherently present in many machine learning tasks, but especially for sequential models seldom accounted for, as most only output a single prediction. In this work we propose an extension of the Multiple Hypothesis Prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-24 Alessandro Berlati , Oliver Scheel , Luigi Di Stefano , Federico Tombari

Three situations in which filtering theory is used in mathematical finance are illustrated at different levels of detail. The three problems originate from the following different works: 1) On estimating the stochastic volatility model from…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-23 Damiano Brigo , Bernard Hanzon

Image classification is often prone to labelling uncertainty. To generate suitable training data, images are labelled according to evaluations of human experts. This can result in ambiguities, which will affect subsequent models. In this…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-24 Katharina Hechinger , Xiao Xiang Zhu , Göran Kauermann

We provide a new perspective on the study of parameterized optimization problems. Our approach combines methods for post-optimal sensitivity analysis and ordinary differential equations to quantify the uncertainty in the minimizer due to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-26 Alen Alexanderian , Joseph Hart , Mason Stevens

This paper investigates adaptive model predictive control (MPC) for a class of constrained linear systems with unknown model parameters. This is also posed as the dual control problem consisting of system identification and regulation. We…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-24 Kunwu Zhang , Yang Shi

This paper studies the mixed $H_-/H_{\infty}$ fault detection filtering of It\^o-type nonlinear stochastic systems. Mixed $H_-/H_{\infty}$ filtering combines the system robustness to the external disturbance and the sensitivity to the fault…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-12-21 Tianliang Zhang , Feiqi Deng , Weihai Zhang , Bor-Sen Chen

The nonlinear filter for an ergodic signal observed in white noise is said to achieve maximal accuracy if the stationary filtering error vanishes as the signal to noise ratio diverges. We give a general characterization of the maximal…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-28 Ramon van Handel

Model uncertainty is a crucial issue in statistics, econometrics and machine learning, yet its definition remains ambiguous and is subject to various interpretations in the literature. So far, there has not been a universally accepted…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Guangyuan Cui , Yuting Wei , Xinyu Zhang
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