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We show how models for prediction with expert advice can be defined concisely and clearly using hidden Markov models (HMMs); standard HMM algorithms can then be used to efficiently calculate, among other things, how the expert predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2008-02-15 Wouter Koolen , Steven de Rooij

Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-14 Matteo D'Alessandro , Magne Thoresen

Machine learning techniques offer a precious tool box for use within astronomy to solve problems involving so-called big data. They provide a means to make accurate predictions about a particular system without prior knowledge of the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-01-01 J. Elliott , R. S. de Souza , A. Krone-Martins , E. Cameron , E. E. O. Ishida , J. Hilbe

Good robust estimators can be tuned to combine a high breakdown point and a specified asymptotic efficiency at a central model. This happens in regression with MM- and tau-estimators among others. However, the finite-sample efficiency of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Ricardo Maronna , Víctor Yohai

In this paper, we study the problem of learning multi-dimensional Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), with a specific focus on model order selection and efficient mixing distribution estimation. We first establish an information-theoretic lower…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-23 Xinyu Liu , Hai Zhang

Feature attributions based on the Shapley value are popular for explaining machine learning models; however, their estimation is complex from both a theoretical and computational standpoint. We disentangle this complexity into two factors:…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-18 Hugh Chen , Ian C. Covert , Scott M. Lundberg , Su-In Lee

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are used extensively to model dependecies of observations in linear regression and are used extensively in many application areas. Parameter estimation for LMMs can be computationally prohibitive on big data.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-08 Zilong Tan , Kimberly Roche , Xiang Zhou , Sayan Mukherjee

Generalized linear model or GLM constitutes a large class of models and essentially extends the ordinary linear regression by connecting the mean of the response variable with the covariate through appropriate link functions. On the other…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Mayukh Choudhury , Debraj Das

In [7], a new iterative method for solving linear system of equations was presented which can be considered as a modification of the Gauss-Seidel method. Then in [4] a different approach, say 2D-DSPM, and more effective one was introduced.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2009-06-10 Davod Khojasteh Salkuyeh

A common approach to estimation of economic models is to calibrate a sub-set of model parameters and keep them fixed when estimating the remaining parameters. Calibrated parameters likely affect conclusions based on the model but estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-03-16 Thomas H. Jørgensen

Bayesian statistical inference for Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with parameters lying on a constrained space is of general interest (e.g., in monotonic or convex regression), but often constructing valid prior distributions supported on…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-02 Rahul Ghosal , Sujit K. Ghosh

We conclude a sequence of work by giving near-optimal sketching and streaming algorithms for estimating Shannon entropy in the most general streaming model, with arbitrary insertions and deletions. This improves on prior results that obtain…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2008-12-18 Nicholas J. A. Harvey , Jelani Nelson , Krzysztof Onak

The Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm is a very powerful and versatile iterative method to estimate the probability of rare events, based on an interacting particle systems. In an other article, in a so-called idealized setting, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-21 Charles-Edouard Bréhier , Ludovic Goudenège , Loic Tudela

This paper develops a unified estimation framework, the Maximum Ideal Likelihood Estimation (MILE), for general parametric models with latent variables. Unlike traditional approaches relying on the marginal likelihood of the observed data,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-08 Yizhou Cai , Ting Fung Ma

For the identification of switched systems with a measured switching signal, this work aims to analyze the effect of switching strategies on the estimation error. The data for identification is assumed to be collected from globally…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-26 Shengling Shi , Othmane Mazhar , Bart De Schutter

Scoring systems are classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few meaningful numbers to make a prediction. These models are often used because they are practical and interpretable. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-04-14 Berk Ustun , Stefano Tracà , Cynthia Rudin

This paper explores innovations to parameter estimation in generalized linear and nonlinear models, which may be used in item response modeling to account for guessing/pretending or slipping/dissimulation and for the effect of covariates.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Adéla Hladká , Patrícia Martinková , Marek Brabec

We consider the problem of signal estimation in a generalized linear model (GLM). GLMs include many canonical problems in statistical estimation, such as linear regression, phase retrieval, and 1-bit compressed sensing. Recent work has…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Pablo Pascual Cobo , Kuan Hsieh , Ramji Venkataramanan

We describe an approach to improving model fitting and model generalization that considers the entropy of distributions of modelling residuals. We use simple simulations to demonstrate the observational signatures of overfitting on ordered…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-05 Barnaby Rowe

The paper introduces a generalization for known probabilistic models such as log-linear and graphical models, called here multiplicative models. These models, that express probabilities via product of parameters are shown to capture…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Ydo Wexler , Christopher Meek