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In Smyl et al. [Local and global trend Bayesian exponential smoothing models. International Journal of Forecasting, 2024.], a generalised exponential smoothing model was proposed that is able to capture strong trends and volatility in time…
Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…
In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…
In the absence of explicit or tractable likelihoods, Bayesians often resort to approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for inference. Our work bridges ABC with deep neural implicit samplers based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) and…
The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is often lauded for its ability to effectively sample from high-dimensional distributions. In this paper we challenge the presumed domination of HMC for the Bayesian analysis of GLMs. By utilizing…
Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…
It is well-known that the posterior density of linear inverse problems with Gaussian prior and Gaussian likelihood is also Gaussian, hence completely described by its covariance and expectation. Sampling from a Gaussian posterior may be…
In many large-scale inverse problems, such as computed tomography and image deblurring, characterization of sharp edges in the solution is desired. Within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, edge-preservation is often achieved using…
Performing inference in Bayesian models requires sampling algorithms to draw samples from the posterior. This becomes prohibitively expensive as the size of data sets increase. Constructing approximations to the posterior which are cheap to…
Data dispersed across multiple files are commonly integrated through probabilistic linkage methods, where even minimal error rates in record matching can significantly contaminate subsequent statistical analyses. In regression problems, we…
While Bayesian inference provides a principled framework for reasoning under uncertainty, its widespread adoption is limited by the intractability of exact posterior computation, necessitating the use of approximate inference. However,…
We focus on Bayesian inverse problems with Gaussian likelihood, linear forward model, and priors that can be formulated as a Gaussian mixture. Such a mixture is expressed as an integral of Gaussian density functions weighted by a mixing…
Variational Bayesian inference and (collapsed) Gibbs sampling are the two important classes of inference algorithms for Bayesian networks. Both have their advantages and disadvantages: collapsed Gibbs sampling is unbiased but is also…
Most estimates for penalised linear regression can be viewed as posterior modes for an appropriate choice of prior distribution. Bayesian shrinkage methods, particularly the horseshoe estimator, have recently attracted a great deal of…
Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…
Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…
Forecasting multivariate time series is a computationally intensive task challenged by extreme or redundant samples. Recent resampling methods aim to increase training efficiency by reweighting samples based on their running losses.…
We develop a fully Bayesian framework for function-on-scalars regression with many predictors. The functional data response is modeled nonparametrically using unknown basis functions, which produces a flexible and data-adaptive functional…
Gaussian graphical models are widely used to infer dependence structures. Bayesian methods are appealing to quantify uncertainty associated with structural learning, i.e., the plausibility of conditional independence statements given the…
Diffusion models have emerged as powerful learned priors for Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs). Diffusion-based solvers rely on a presumed likelihood for the observations in BIPs to guide the generation process. Likelihood misspecification…