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The high fraction of published results that turn out to be incorrect is a major concern of today's science. This paper contributes to the understanding of this problem in two independent directions. First, Johnson's recent claim that…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-07 Jean-Christophe Mourrat

In industry, online randomized controlled experiment (a.k.a. A/B experiment) is a standard approach to measure the impact of a causal change. These experiments have small treatment effect to reduce the potential blast radius. As a result,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-29 Tanmoy Das , Dohyeon Lee , Arnab Sinha

A well-known approach for identifying defect-prone parts of software in order to focus testing is to use different kinds of product metrics such as size or complexity. Although this approach has been evaluated in many contexts, the question…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2014-02-05 Frank Elberzhager , Stephan Kremer , Jürgen Münch , Danilo Assmann

In routine care, individuals identified a priori as high-risk are usually tested for conditions more frequently. Protected attributes, such as sex or ethnicity may also determine testing frequency. Such heterogeneous detection rates across…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-08 Jose Benitez-Aurioles , Ricardo Silva , Brian McMillan , Matthew Sperrin

Several performance measures can be used for evaluating classification results: accuracy, F-measure, and many others. Can we say that some of them are better than others, or, ideally, choose one measure that is best in all situations? To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Martijn Gösgens , Anton Zhiyanov , Alexey Tikhonov , Liudmila Prokhorenkova

Performance monitoring is essential for safe clinical deployment of image classification models. However, because ground-truth labels are typically unavailable in the target dataset, direct assessment of real-world model performance is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Tim Flühmann , Alceu Bissoto , Trung-Dung Hoang , Lisa M. Koch

Optimal performance is critical for decision-making tasks from medicine to autonomous driving, however common performance measures may be too general or too specific. For binary classifiers, diagnostic tests or prognosis at a timepoint,…

Introduction: Accounting for missing data by imputing or weighting conditional on covariates relies on the variable with missingness being observed at least some of the time for all unique covariate values. This requirement is referred to…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-16 Paul N Zivich , Bonnie E Shook-Sa , Stephen R Cole , Eric T Lofgren , Jessie K Edwards

This paper revisits the simple, but empirically salient, problem of inference on a real-valued parameter that is partially identified through upper and lower bounds with asymptotically normal estimators. A simple confidence interval is…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-01 Jörg Stoye

As with all measurements, the measurement of examinee ability, in terms of scores that the examinee obtains in a test, is also error-ridden. The quantification of such error or uncertainty in the test score data--or rather the complementary…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-13 Satyendra Nath Chakrabartty , Kangrui Wang , Dalia Chakrabarty

This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is developed for tracking the performance of the model across…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

Failure detection in automated image classification is a critical safeguard for clinical deployment. Detected failure cases can be referred to human assessment, ensuring patient safety in computer-aided clinical decision making. Despite its…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Melanie Bernhardt , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Ben Glocker

Machine learning (ML) models show strong promise for new biomedical prediction tasks, but concerns about trustworthiness have hindered their clinical adoption. In particular, it is often unclear whether a model relies on true clinical cues…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-13 Dushan N. Wadduwage , Dineth Jayakody , Leonidas Zimianitis

Most NLP datasets are not annotated with protected attributes such as gender, making it difficult to measure classification bias using standard measures of fairness (e.g., equal opportunity). However, manually annotating a large dataset…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-04-28 Kawin Ethayarajh

Medical diagnostics is a high-stakes and complex domain that is critical to patient care. However, current evaluations of large language models (LLMs) remain limited in capturing key challenges of clinical diagnostic scenarios. Most rely on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Xiangxu Zhang , Lei Li , Yanyun Zhou , Xiao Zhou , Yingying Zhang , Xian Wu

The detection of malware is a critical task for the protection of computing environments. This task often requires extremely low false positive rates (FPR) of 0.01% or even lower, for which modern machine learning has no readily available…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-07 Andre T. Nguyen , Edward Raff , Charles Nicholas , James Holt

The false discovery rate (FDR) and false nondiscovery rate (FNDR) have received considerable attention in the literature on multiple testing. These performance measures are also appropriate for classification, and in this work we develop…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-28 Clayton Scott , Gowtham Bellala , Rebecca Willett

Knowing the true effect size of clinical interventions in randomised clinical trials is key to informing the public health policies. Vaccine efficacy is defined in terms of the relative risk or the ratio of two disease risks. However, only…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-03 Yasin Memari

Performance comparisons are fundamental in medical imaging Artificial Intelligence (AI) research, often driving claims of superiority based on relative improvements in common performance metrics. However, such claims frequently rely solely…

The front-door criterion can be used to identify and compute causal effects despite the existence of unmeasured confounders between a treatment and outcome. However, the key assumptions -- (i) the existence of a variable (or set of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Rohit Bhattacharya , Razieh Nabi
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