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Bayesian neural networks and deep ensemble methods have been proposed for uncertainty quantification; however, they are computationally intensive and require large storage. By utilizing a single deterministic model, we can solve the above…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-04 Yaxin Ma , Benjamin Colburn , Jose C. Principe

Based on existing ideas in the field of imprecise probabilities, we present a new approach for assessing the reliability of the individual predictions of a generative probabilistic classifier. We call this approach robustness…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Adrián Detavernier , Jasper De Bock

Statistical learning algorithms provide a generally-applicable framework to sidestep time-consuming experiments, or accurate physics-based modeling, but they introduce a further source of error on top of the intrinsic limitations of the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-05-17 Matthias Kellner , Michele Ceriotti

Deep Learning is a consolidated, state-of-the-art Machine Learning tool to fit a function when provided with large data sets of examples. However, in regression tasks, the straightforward application of Deep Learning models provides a point…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-25 Axel Brando , Jose A. Rodríguez-Serrano , Mauricio Ciprian , Roberto Maestre , Jordi Vitrià

Machine learning (ML) is often viewed as a powerful data analysis tool that is easy to learn because of its black-box nature. Yet this very nature also makes it difficult to quantify confidence in predictions extracted from ML models, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Paul Patrone , Anthony Kearsley

In the context of industrially mass-manufactured products, quality management is based on physically inspecting a small sample from a large batch and reasoning about the batch's quality conformance. When complementing physical inspections…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-22 Simon Cramer , Tobias Müller , Robert H. Schmitt

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of machine learning models, providing important insights into the reliability of predictions and aiding the decision-making process in real-world applications. This paper proposes a novel way…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Lisa Wimmer , Eyke Hüllermeier , Thomas Nagler

Machine learning has become an effective tool for automatically annotating unstructured data (e.g., images) with structured labels (e.g., object detections). As a result, a new programming paradigm called neurosymbolic programming has…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Ramya Ramalingam , Sangdon Park , Osbert Bastani

Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-08 Javier Antorán , James Urquhart Allingham , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Despite their impressive predictive performance in various computer vision tasks, deep neural networks (DNNs) tend to make overly confident predictions, which hinders their widespread use in safety-critical applications. While there have…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Teodora Popordanoska , Aleksei Tiulpin , Matthew B. Blaschko

While generative models have become increasingly prevalent across various domains, fundamental concerns regarding their reliability persist. A crucial yet understudied aspect of these models is the uncertainty quantification surrounding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Giorgio Morales , Frederic Jurie , Jalal Fadili

Although deep neural networks (DNNs) achieve high predictive accuracy, their confidence estimates are often unreliable, potentially compromising user trust in their decisions. This has motivated research on calibrated models, where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Ramya Hebbalaguppe , Ajay Shastry , Soumya Suvra Ghosal , Chetan Arora

A probabilistic classifier with reliable predictive uncertainties i) fits successfully to the target domain data, ii) provides calibrated class probabilities in difficult regions of the target domain (e.g.\ class overlap), and iii)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-09 Melih Kandemir , Abdullah Akgül , Manuel Haussmann , Gozde Unal

In the field of deep learning based computer vision, the development of deep object detection has led to unique paradigms (e.g., two-stage or set-based) and architectures (e.g., Faster-RCNN or DETR) which enable outstanding performance on…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-07 Denis Huseljic , Marek Herde , Mehmet Muejde , Bernhard Sick

One of the most common problems preventing the application of prediction models in the real world is lack of generalization: The accuracy of models, measured in the benchmark does repeat itself on future data, e.g. in the settings of real…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Abdel Aziz Taha , Leonhard Hennig , Petr Knoth

Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty (model calibration) is essential for the safe application of neural networks. Many instances of miscalibration in modern neural networks have been reported, suggesting a trend that newer, more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-27 Matthias Minderer , Josip Djolonga , Rob Romijnders , Frances Hubis , Xiaohua Zhai , Neil Houlsby , Dustin Tran , Mario Lucic

Trustworthy ML systems should not only return accurate predictions, but also a reliable representation of their uncertainty. Bayesian methods are commonly used to quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, but alternative…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-09-11 Mira Jürgens , Nis Meinert , Viktor Bengs , Eyke Hüllermeier , Willem Waegeman

While several methods for predicting uncertainty on deep networks have been recently proposed, they do not readily translate to large and complex datasets. In this paper we utilize a simplified form of the Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-05 Nicholas Wilkins , Michael Johnson , Ifeoma Nwogu

The adaptation and use of Machine Learning (ML) in our daily lives has led to concerns in lack of transparency, privacy, reliability, among others. As a result, we are seeing research in niche areas such as interpretability, causality, bias…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Fahimeh Fakour , Ali Mosleh , Ramin Ramezani

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis