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Cross-sectional incidence estimation based on recency testing has become a widely used tool in HIV research. Recently, this method has gained prominence in HIV prevention trials to estimate the "placebo" incidence that participants might…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-18 Jianan Pan , Marlena Bannick , Fei Gao

Incidence estimation of HIV infection can be performed using recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) results from a cross-sectional sample. This allows practitioners to understand population trends in the HIV epidemic without having to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Marlena Bannick , Deborah Donnell , Richard Hayes , Oliver Laeyendecker , Fei Gao

Longitudinal cohorts to determine the incidence of HIV infection are logistically challenging, so researchers have sought alternative strategies. Recency test methods use biomarker profiles of HIV-infected subjects in a cross-sectional…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Fei Gao , Marlena S. Bannick

Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation leverages recency test results to determine the HIV incidence of a population of interest, where recency test uses biomarker profiles to infer whether an HIV-positive individual was "recently"…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Qi Wang , Ann Duerr , Fei Gao

Estimating new HIV infections is significant yet challenging due to the difficulty in distinguishing between recent and long-term infections. We demonstrate that HIV recency status (recent v.s. long-term) could be determined from the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-13 Wenlong Yang , Danping Liu , Le Bao , Runze Li

Knowledge of the time at which an HIV-infected individual seroconverts, when the immune system starts responding to HIV infection, plays a vital role in the design and implementation of interventions to reduce the impact of the HIV…

Applications · Statistics 2017-06-09 Loumpiana Koulai , Anne Presanis , Gary Murphy , Barbara Suligoi , Daniela De Angelis

Accurate HIV incidence estimation based on individual recent infection status (recent vs long-term infection) is important for monitoring the epidemic, targeting interventions to those at greatest risk of new infection, and evaluating…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Ben Sheng , Changcheng Li , Le Bao , Runze Li

We present a new analysis of relationships between disease incidence and the prevalence of an experimentally defined state of `recent infection'. This leads to a clean separation between biological parameters (properties of disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2008-06-09 Thomas A. McWalter , Alex Welte

The past decade has seen tremendous progress in the development of biomedical agents that are effective as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. To expand the choice of products and delivery methods, new medications and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-03 Fei Gao , David V. Glidden , James P. Hughes , Deborah Donnell

Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-16 Jiahao Zhang , Keith Sabin , Le Bao

Ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic is among the Sustainable Development Goals for the next decade. In order to overcome the gap between the need for care and the available resources, better understanding of HIV epidemics is needed to guide policy…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-03 Zhou Lan , Le Bao

Background: High HIV transmission persists in many U.S. jurisdictions despite prevention efforts. HIV self-testing offers a means to overcome barriers associated with routine laboratory-based testing but carries a risk of increasing…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-04-23 Alex Viguerie

Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-04 Timothy M Wolock , Seth R Flaxman , Jeffrey W Eaton

Planning, implementation and evaluation of public health policies to control the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic require regular monitoring of disease burden. This includes the proportion living with HIV, whether diagnosed or…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-20 Daniela De Angelis , Anne M. Presanis , Stefano Conti , A. E. Ades

When comparing time-varying treatments in a non-randomised setting, one must often correct for time-dependent confounders that influence treatment choice over time and that are themselves influenced by treatment. We present a new two step…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-06 J. M. Gran , R. Hoff , K. Røysland , B. Ledergerber , J. Young , O. O. Aalen

Aim of this manuscript is to show a simple method to infer the time-course of new COVID-19 infections (the most important information in order to establish the effect of containment strategies) from available aggregated data, such as number…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-21 Andrea Pugliese , Sara Sottile

A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-09-29 L. F. Lopez , F. A. B. Coutinho , M. N. Burattini , E. Massad

As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national levels. Currently, the epidemic…

Applications · Statistics 2015-08-27 Le Bao , Xiaoyue Niu , Mary Mahy , Peter D. Ghys

Respondent-driven sampling is a form of link-tracing network sampling, which is widely used to study hard-to-reach populations, often to estimate population proportions. Previous treatments of this process have used a with-replacement…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-25 Krista J. Gile

Local estimates of HIV-prevalence provide information that can be used to target interventions and consequently increase the efficiency of the resources. This closer-to-optimal allocation can lead to better health outcomes, including the…

Applications · Statistics 2023-07-18 Enrique M. Saldarriaga
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