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We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-18 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

Recently, there has been a growing interest in distributionally robust optimization (DRO) as a principled approach to data-driven decision making. In this paper, we consider a distributionally robust two-stage stochastic optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Zhe Zhang , Shabbir Ahmed , Guanghui Lan

In this paper, an optimization problem with uncertain constraint coefficients is considered. Possibility theory is used to model the uncertainty. Namely, a joint possibility distribution in constraint coefficient realizations, called…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-09-07 Romain Guillaume , Adam Kasperski , Pawel Zielinski

This paper proposes risk-averse and risk-agnostic formulations to robust design in which solutions that satisfy the system requirements for a set of scenarios are pursued. These scenarios, which correspond to realizations of uncertain…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-07 Luis G. Crespo , Bret Stanford , Natalia Alexandrov

We study rare-event simulation for a class of problems where the target hitting sets of interest are defined via modern machine learning tools such as neural networks and random forests. This problem is motivated from fast emerging studies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Yuanlu Bai , Zhiyuan Huang , Henry Lam , Ding Zhao

In this paper a class of optimization problems with uncertain linear constraints is discussed. It is assumed that the constraint coefficients are random vectors whose probability distributions are only partially known. Possibility theory is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-30 Romain Guillaume , Adam Kasperski , Pawel Zielinski

We study contextual stochastic optimization problems, where we leverage rich auxiliary observations (e.g., product characteristics) to improve decision making with uncertain variables (e.g., demand). We show how to train forest decision…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-17 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao

Two-Stage Robust Optimization (2RO) with discrete uncertainty is challenging, often rendering exact solutions prohibitive. Scenario reduction alleviates this issue by selecting a small, representative subset of scenarios to enable tractable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Tianjue Lin , Jianan Zhou , Jieyi Bi , Yaoxin Wu , Wen Song , Zhiguang Cao , Jie Zhang

Many real-world combinatorial problems involve uncertain parameters, which can be predicted given contextual features and historical data. These `predict-then-optimize' or `contextual optimization' problems have gained significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Noah Schutte , Senne Berden , Tias Guns , Krzysztof Postek , Neil Yorke-Smith

Decision tree learning is a widely used approach in machine learning, favoured in applications that require concise and interpretable models. Heuristic methods are traditionally used to quickly produce models with reasonably high accuracy.…

Random Forest is a machine learning method that offers many advantages, including the ability to easily measure variable importance. Class balancing technique is a well-known solution to deal with class imbalance problem. However, it has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-19 Yunbi Nam , Sunwoo Han

Neural Combinatorial Optimization aims to learn to solve a class of combinatorial problems through data-driven methods and notably through employing neural networks by learning the underlying distribution of problem instances. While, so far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Daniela Thyssens , Tim Dernedde , Wilson Sentanoe , Lars Schmidt-Thieme

In stochastic optimisation, the large number of scenarios required to faithfully represent the underlying uncertainty is often a barrier to finding efficient numerical solutions. This motivates the scenario reduction problem: by find a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-23 Julien Keutchayan , Janosch Ortmann , Walter Rei

This paper presents a framework to tackle constrained combinatorial optimization problems using deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). To this end, we extend the Neural Combinatorial Optimization (NCO) theory in order to deal with constraints in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Ruben Solozabal , Josu Ceberio , Martin Takáč

In this work, we study a single-machine scheduling problem that aims at minimizing the total cost of a schedule subject to start-time dependent costs. This framework naturally captures scenarios where costs fluctuate throughout the day,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-17 Sofía Rodríguez-Ballesteros , Javier Alcaraz , Laura Anton-Sanchez , Marc Goerigk , Dorothee Henke

To train machine learning models that are robust to distribution shifts in the data, distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has been proven very effective. However, the existing approaches to learning a distributionally robust model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Farzin Haddadpour , Mohammad Mahdi Kamani , Mehrdad Mahdavi , Amin Karbasi

Data-driven algorithm selection is a powerful approach for choosing effective heuristics for computational problems. It operates by evaluating a set of candidate algorithms on a collection of representative training instances and selecting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Vaggos Chatziafratis , Ishani Karmarkar , Yingxi Li , Ellen Vitercik

Classification models are very sensitive to data uncertainty, and finding robust classifiers that are less sensitive to data uncertainty has raised great interest in the machine learning literature. This paper aims to construct robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-01 Vali Asimit , Ioannis Kyriakou , Simone Santoni , Salvatore Scognamiglio , Rui Zhu

To model combinatorial decision problems involving uncertainty and probability, we introduce scenario based stochastic constraint programming. Stochastic constraint programs contain both decision variables, which we can set, and stochastic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2009-03-09 S. Armagan Tarim , Suresh Manandhar , Toby Walsh

The problem of identifying the most discriminating features when performing supervised learning has been extensively investigated. In particular, several methods for variable selection in model-based classification have been proposed.…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-16 Andrea Cappozzo , Francesca Greselin , Thomas Brendan Murphy