Related papers: Estimating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in educational …
Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemic model on contact networks in the…
An outbreak of the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of SARS-CoV-2 that began around mid-June 2021 in Sydney, Australia, quickly developed into a nation-wide epidemic. The ongoing epidemic is of major concern as the Delta variant is more infectious…
Several important aspects related to SARS-CoV-2 transmission are not well known due to a lack of appropriate data. However, mathematical and computational tools can be used to extract part of this information from the available data, like…
Little quantitative information is available on the mixing patterns of children in school environments. Describing and understanding contacts between children at school would help quantify the transmission opportunities of respiratory…
The question of how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted remains surprisingly controversial today, especially with reference to airborne transmission. In fact, despite a large body of scientific evidence, health and regulatory authorities still…
The rapid spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and its dramatic consequences, are forcing policymakers to take strict measures in order to keep the population safe. At the same time, societal and economical interactions are to be safeguarded. A wide…
Effective contact tracing is crucial to contain epidemic spreading without disrupting societal activities especially in the present time of coexistence with a pandemic outbreak. Large gatherings play a key role, potentially favouring…
Although previous infection and vaccination provide protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, both reinfection and breakthrough infection are possible events whose occurrence would increase with time after first exposure to the antigen and…
Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and…
Characterising drivers of SARS-CoV-2 circulation is crucial for understanding COVID-19 because of the severity of control measures adopted during the pandemic. Whole genome sequence data augmented with demographic metadata provides the best…
A number of epidemics, including the SARS-CoV-1 epidemic of 2002-2004, have been known to exhibit superspreading, in which a small fraction of infected individuals is responsible for the majority of new infections. The existence of…
Using recent data from voluntary mass testing, I provide credible bounds on prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 for Austrian counties in early December 2020. When estimating prevalence, a natural missing data problem arises: no test results are…
Despite the availability of effective vaccines, the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 suggests that co-circulation with other pathogens and resulting multi-epidemics may become increasingly frequent. To better forecast and control the risk of such…
The identification of the transmission parameters of a virus is fundamental to identify the optimal public health strategy. These parameters can present significant changes over time caused by genetic mutations or viral recombination,…
We propose a mathematical model with five compartments for the SARS-CoV-2 transmission: susceptible $S$, undetected infected asymptomatic $A$, undetected infected symptomatic $I$, confirmed positive and isolated $L$, and recovered $ R$, for…
How may exposure risks to SARS-CoV-2 be assessed quantitatively? The material metabolism approach of Industrial Ecology can be applied to the mass flows of these virions by their numbers, as a key step in the analysis of the current…
We aim at clarifying the controversy about the effects of school openings or closures on the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. The mathematical analysis of compartmental models with subpopulations shows that the in-school contact rates…
In February 2020 the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Germany. Since then the local public health offices have been responsible to monitor and react to the dynamics of the pandemic. One of their major tasks is to…
During its first two years, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic manifested as multiple waves shaped by complex interactions between variants of concern, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the immunological landscape of the population. Understanding…
In this paper a Bayesian SEIR model is studied to estimate the proportion of the population infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19. To capture heterogeneity in the population and the effect of interventions to reduce…